Ah, crypto. The playground of the bulls and bears. 

Which side do you fall on?

Since the start of 2022, bears have dominated the conversation. They promise bitcoin’s price will drop to $30,000 or lower. 2018 all over again. Bear flag target is $21,000. Capitulation imminent. At least two more years before we go back to a new all-time high.

What about the bulls?

I can’t hear them over all the crickets chirping. The bullish fractals have disappeared.

Somebody has to fill the void. Why not me? 

Do you want to know my most bullish scenario for bitcoin (and by extension, the whole crypto market)?

Up a little, down a little, forever.

Something like this:

No FOMO, supercycle, or moonshots. Just aggressive, consistent growth that outpaces every other investment that people like you and I can access.

Dream or nightmare?

Yes, that’s my dream. 

You get perfect conditions for growth.

Plenty of opportunities for people to enter and exit, enough upward price movement to give new buyers confidence in the market, not enough “zoom!” to make people get too greedy, enough boredom that scammers go back to other things, and enough excitement to motivate investors to learn about what they’re buying.

Most importantly, enough liquidity and casual interest that builders and innovators have an audience for their creations.

For most people, that’s a nightmare. Six months before the price doubles? Multiple drops of +20% along the way?

Nobody wants to wait six months for their Lambo.

How long could that trend continue before traders decide it’s no longer a bear flag? And anyway, how do you get a good entry if the price doesn’t break out of the trading pattern?

Easy rider

While that outcome doesn’t bring a lot of volatility, it’s a much easier ride than massive bull and bear markets. Easier on the mind, body, and portfolio.

Would you be upset if the price goes to *only* $80,000 and the value of your investment *only* doubles in one year? And then another 2x next year? And another 2x the year after? 

What about 50% each year? Would you be sad about a 600% return on investment over five years? 

That’s probably more sustainable than whatever your data model predicts.

While that’d be nice, I’m not betting on it. This market has always moved in extremes. Big moves up and big moves down. Do you see any reason that should change now?

Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio.

Follow Me on Twitter.

• @mkhelfman

Learn how to earn…

• Engagement Rewards

Become part of our community.

• Telegram - Facebook Group - Discord

Follow our socials.

• Twitter - Instagram - Facebook

Subscribe to our podcast.

• YouTube - iTunes / Apple - Spotify

Subscribe to this publication.

• It’s free (for now)

Comment & Earn!

Share your thoughts and opinions on the topics covered within this blog in the comments below for your chance to win yourself an NFT. Click here for more information on our engagement rewards.

Discord | Twitter | Youtube

After having passed the 100 million users mark in September 2020, the Bitcoin network would now have more than 130 million users. I use the conditional tense, as these are only estimates.

As you know, the Bitcoin network is pseudonymous and each person can have multiple addresses on the network if they wish. It is impossible to know exactly how many users are on the Bitcoin network at any given time. It is possible, however, to have detailed statistics on the number of active addresses on the network.

Cross-checking is done to finally arrive at some estimates of the number of users. This figure is a little more than 130 million at the time of writing.

This is a lot and a little at the same time. It's a lot when you consider that Bitcoin was invented only a little over 13 years ago. So, in just 13 years, a P2P payment system unknown to the general public that has no marketing team trying to convince new users has managed to convince more than 130 million people. That's impressive!

On the other hand, you may say to yourself that this is not much when you have become aware of the flaws of the current monetary and financial system. And even more so when you realize that Bitcoin is the solution to these flaws. If you have understood that Bitcoin is an essential paradigm shift to a better world for the many in the future, then you may be disappointed. You might think like me sometimes:

Why are so many people still so scared of Bitcoin?

You might be tempted to think that it's because of the bad image conveyed by the powerful people in the current system who still sometimes call Bitcoin a scam. Or you might think it's because they think Bitcoin is a bubble. Others think that Bitcoin is based on nothing, and that seems to scare them.

Imagine if they found out that paper money is not based on anything at all, except the fact that it is imposed on us by governments around the world. They would be shocked to discover the ugly truth. It is however a necessary evil to be able to move towards the better and take control of your life. But some people just aren't ready yet.

Others think it's the volatility of the Bitcoin price that scares the general public. The price of Bitcoin was $69K at the end of 2021, and it is now just under $40K. This may be frightening to those used to markets manipulated by the powerful in the current system. Those who are not used to a free market that leaves the power permanently with the users might be scared.

Others might say that Bitcoin is used primarily for illegal activities and that they don't want to endorse that by buying Bitcoin. But that argument doesn't seem to hold anymore when even someone like Janet Yellen just said that Bitcoin could not have been used by Russia to escape American sanctions due to the war in Ukraine.

The real reason lies in the fear of assuming the responsibility that freedom implies

In short, if Bitcoin still scares so many people, I think it is for something else. I recently came across this quote from Sigmund Freud, and it seems to me to answer that question I asked you a bit above:

“Most people do not really want freedom, because freedom involves responsibility, and most people are frightened of responsibility.”

Bitcoin gives you freedom. The freedom to live your life on your own terms. This is a tremendous freedom that we should all naturally aspire to as human beings. However, such power does not come without responsibilities as you might guess.

The power that Bitcoin gives you comes with a price to pay. That price is not a high one in my eyes, but you should know it: it is the fact that you have to be responsible for the fruits of your labor. For the first time in your life, you are going to have to take full control over the fruits of your labor.

If you lose your 12-24 word seed phrase, then your Bitcoin will never be accessible again. Thus, you will permanently lose access to your money. You won't be able to call someone to complain, as you could with a banker. You will be the one to blame. This means becoming responsible for your actions.

To me, this is a unique opportunity, but it is something that scares too many people. Yet, it is the only way to achieve true freedom over the fruits of your labor. If you have not yet purchased Bitcoin, or have not yet taken full possession of your Bitcoin's private keys, I invite you to think about what I have just mentioned.

Final Thoughts

I invite you to ask yourself about the need to become fully responsible for taking power over your life. This is essential because there can be no shortcuts here. You can't want to have uncensorable and non-taxable hard money without becoming responsible for ensuring its full security.

Feel free to tell me in the comments what you think is the main reason why so many people are afraid to come and buy Bitcoin, when inflation in America has just reached 8.5% in March 2022...

Twitter

• @ssaurel

In Bitcoin We Trust

• Medium

• Newsletter

• Publish0x

• Reddit

• Quora for all the questions you have on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

Comment & Earn!

Share your thoughts and opinions on the topics covered within this blog in the comments below for your chance to win yourself an NFT. Click here for more information on our engagement rewards.

Discord | Twitter | Youtube

After an ATH of $69K in November 2021, the Bitcoin price is now around $30K. This represents a 56.5% drop in the price of Bitcoin from its ATH.

For those who only see Bitcoin as a speculative investment, this is certainly a time of extreme fear. Unfortunately, this category of people is still dominant in the Bitcoin world. I say unfortunately here because Bitcoin is much more than just another speculative investment.

And those who don't take the time to understand the why of Bitcoin are missing the point. They see only this:

This is where you need to be able to step back and see the bigger picture. For that, there is no magic bullet: you need to have made the effort to understand the why of Bitcoin. Unlike fiat currencies whose design is such that your purchasing power is doomed to erode over time irreparably toward zero, Bitcoin is a unit of wealth, not a unit of debt.

You need to understand this nuance that makes all the difference.

The price of Bitcoin has changed from $69K to $30K, but the source code remains the same. The design of the Bitcoin protocol has not changed. But it is the Bitcoin protocol that gives you incredible guarantees for your future, not the price at any given moment.

Back in December 2021, I reminded you that buying Bitcoin was just the first step. Then, to take full advantage of it, you need to understand the why of Bitcoin and in particular the 4 rules at the heart of the Bitcoin protocol:

1. No monetary inflation

2. No confiscations

3. No censorship

4. Anyone can verify rules 1 to 3 at any time

These are the 3 protectives “No” that Bitcoin allows you to verify at all times.

As the price of Bitcoin falls by more than 50% once again, you just have to ask yourself if these 4 rules are still guaranteed. The answer is obviously YES. This is what is essential.

Behind these rules that can be verified at any time, the Bitcoin protocol gives you 10 additional guarantees that will make all the difference in your future if you choose to become a Bitcoin HODLer no matter what:

1. There will never be more than 21 million BTC in circulation

2. 10 minutes delay on average between the issuance of each block of transactions

3. An adjustment of the mining difficulty of the Bitcoin network every 2,016 mined blocks

4. A decrease in the reward given to miners for every 210,000 blocks issued

5. A consensus algorithm based on Proof-of-Work

6. Bitcoin is the most secure decentralized network in the world

7. A permanently available network

8. A never hacked network

9. The data of the Bitcoin Blockchain is immutable

10. The Bitcoin code is open source

Whenever the price of Bitcoin has fallen by more than 50% in the past, these guarantees have always been preserved. That's happening again today. This is the main reason why the Bitcoin price has always recovered and why we have then been able to reach new ATHs for the Bitcoin price every time.

As long as the guarantees that the Bitcoin protocol gives you are preserved, you can expect this to be the case. Bitcoin is thus like a phoenix that rises ever stronger. Opponents of Bitcoin find this hard to accept, but it is a reality you can check at any time because the Bitcoin source code is open.

So I'm not asking you to take my word for it, but to go and check for yourself if you want. That's what I suggested you do in this article at the beginning of February:

In Bitcoin We Trust Newsletter

Do the Math, Run the Numbers, and You’ll Understand Why Bitcoin Is a Unique Species of Money

This issue of In Bitcoin We Trust Newsletter is for all subscribers. To get more insights on Bitcoin, you may be interested to upgrade to the premium package…

Read more

4 years ago · 2 likes · 3 comments · Sylvain Saurel

Once you understand that the price of Bitcoin at a given moment has no impact on the guarantees that its protocol gives you, you will understand that as long as the design of the Bitcoin protocol remains the same, nothing changes. What changes here is simply the perception of investors, most of whom have a short-term view. They make the mistake of letting their emotions guide their choices with Bitcoin.

This is a trap that I encourage you to never fall into. If you do, then you will see the current situation as an opportunity. That's why I chose to accumulate more BTC at $30K last week, and why I wasn't afraid when the price of Bitcoin subsequently dropped to $25K. I know full well that in the future these price levels will be considered particularly cheap.

It's up to you to take the right time horizon with Bitcoin: the long-term one.

Twitter

• @ssaurel

In Bitcoin We Trust

• Medium

• Newsletter

• Publish0x

• Reddit

• Quora for all the questions you have on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

Comment & Earn!

Share your thoughts and opinions on the topics covered within this blog in the comments below for your chance to win yourself an NFT. Click here for more information on our engagement rewards.

Discord | Twitter | Youtube

The accounting firm PwC released the second annual Global CBDC Index report on April 4, 2022. In this report, PwC measures how far central banks have progressed in adopting their own digital currency. The result should not surprise you: more than 80% of central banks are interested in launching a CBDC, or have already done so.

For those of you not following the news, CBDC stands for Central Bank Digital Currency. A CBDC is a digital currency running on a Blockchain generally, the technology behind Bitcoin (but without decentralization of Bitcoin), and is issued by a central bank. Here is the Bank for International Settlements' vision for these digital currencies:

“CBDCs are the currency of the 21st century.”

The first major economy whose central bank launched a pilot project for its digital currency was China. It has become a national property in China since a speech by Xi Jinping in October 2019. The digital yuan is already very advanced, and China hopes to have the first-mover advantage in this area. The goal is clear: to challenge the hegemony of the American dollar over the world.

80% of Central Banks Are Preparing a CBDC

The European Union is not to be outdone, with the ECB having been toying with the idea of a digital euro for several months now. The European Commission is expected to present legislation next year to support its development. America is also talking more and more about exploring the creation of a digital dollar.

For PwC, it seems clear that these CBDCs are a good thing:

“CBDCs will facilitate more efficient, cheaper, 24/7 cross-border payments for the financial services industry. We expect CBDCs to greatly benefit cross-border transactions and the economies of all jurisdictions involved.”

The PwC report ranks retail CBDCs, those issued for use by the general public, and wholesale CBDCs, those used by financial institutions with central bank participation, out of a total of 100. Retail CBDCs are more mature than wholesale CBDCs, according to the report.

Nigeria's “eNaira” received a score of 95, making it the most mature of the two categories combined. On the retail CBDC side, the Bahamas was the first country to launch a CBDC: the Sand Dollar. Jamaica's CBDC, the Jam-Dex (ranked 4th), will launch this year. Thailand and Hong Kong top the list in the wholesale CBDC category for their joint project mBridge, which aims to facilitate cross-border payments.

Other major projects in the category include Canada, Singapore, France, and South Africa.

Finally, the PwC report includes an overview of stablecoins. I previously reported on the upcoming big flippening between Tether USDT and USDC at the end of 2021. The analysts involved in this report say that privately issued tokens will continue to evolve and coexist with CBDCs. The report also points out that stablecoins have become an “integral part of the cryptocurrency ecosystem,” and that it is “impossible” for a fund or institution “to be active in crypto without using stablecoins.”

The danger is looming for the future, and your best weapon is Bitcoin

This report is interesting, but it pretends to forget the essential issues that CBDCs bring to the people. These issues revolve around three axes: ownership, privacy, and freedom.

To make no mistake, the fact that more and more central banks are moving forward with launching their own CBDCs means that the danger is becoming clearer for the people. These CBDCs are an extension of the flaws of fiat currencies in the digital world. No more and no less. With these CBDCs, the powerful people of the current system will be able to control the people even better by monitoring all the transactions made.

The temptation will then be great to create profiles to categorize individuals and give them access to certain rights depending on whether they respect the arbitrary rules decided by the governments. The capacity for censorship and confiscation will be even greater.

For the Chinese digital currency, there is already talk of a possible expiration date to push people to spend their money and boost domestic consumption if necessary!

This is not something you want. If all this will be possible, it is primarily because these CBDCs will be centralized and controlled by a tiny minority of people. With stablecoins, the problem of centralization also arises, as does the transparency of the reserve assets. Stablecoins are a less bad solution than CBDCs, but they do not solve the real problem.

The real problem is solved by a big absentee in the PwC report: Bitcoin!

Because yes, it is Bitcoin that allows you to keep control because of the decentralization of its system and the absence of a leader. Some still doubt it, but more and more people will open their eyes to this reality in the coming years. While cash is not going to disappear in the medium term, the question arises in the longer term in a world where everything will become digital and where governments will push strongly in this direction.

This is why Bitcoin will become an increasingly used solution, and why seeing Bitcoin reach one billion users by 2030 does not seem like a utopia to me at all. As always, only the future will confirm or deny my vision. Wait and see.

Subscribe now

Twitter

• @ssaurel

In Bitcoin We Trust

• Medium

• Newsletter

• Publish0x

• Reddit

• Quora for all the questions you have on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

Comment & Earn!

Share your thoughts and opinions on the topics covered within this blog in the comments below for your chance to win yourself an NFT. Click here for more information on our engagement rewards.

Discord | Twitter | Youtube

Bitcoin’s price tumbled from $40,000 to $25,000 in one week. 

While that’s not an extreme drop for bitcoin, it came at a bad time, when the market had no liquidity, little new money coming in, and a ton of leverage.

Some people got wiped out when LUNA and UST, two components of a widely-used financial platform, collapsed. 

Analysts are conflicted about what this means. 

On the one hand, we have some technical and on-chain data to suggest the bear market just ended or will end soon (one final crash, then “up only”). 

On the other hand, that conclusion doesn’t fit any of the data models, cycle concepts, or the general consensus among people in the market.

It also raises questions—when did the bear market start? What do you consider a bull market? 

Cryptowriter

Is 2022 the End of Bitcoin’s Bull and Bear Markets?

Almost six months after bitcoin’s price reached its all-time high and roughly ten months after its 2021 low of $28,500, people still argue about whether crypto is in a bull or bear market. What do those terms mean for an asset whose price goes up 100-300% in bear markets and crashes 30-50% in bull markets…

Read more

4 years ago · 6 likes · 6 comments · Mark Helfman

You get the price you deserve

Does that mean you need to wait for the price to go up before you put money into the market?

In a March survey of my Crypto is Easy subscribers, 15% of respondents said they were doing just that. Since bitcoin’s price is lower now than then, I’m assuming they’re still waiting.

Seems like many people take the same approach. 

In 2021, bitcoin maximalists told you that’s exactly what you should do. It’s what institutional investors do, too. Wait for the price to go. It’s safer that way. Buying low is stupid. Never catch a falling knife!

Truth be told, it does feel safer when the price goes up. Search volume and exchange activity go up. Active addresses and many other metrics rise. You see others doing it. You hear more people talk about it. Soon after you put money in, your investment goes up. 

That validates your decision.

Price and opportunity are different things

The problem is, all those things happen after the best opportunities have passed. It’s no wonder bitcoin’s price went up 60% in 2021 and most people still lost money.

Once search volume spikes, exchanges get more traffic, popular people get active again, and you hear “nobody’s selling,” you need to push that feeling of safety out of your head.

This market is never safe.

The bottom is always $0, no matter how high or low bitcoin and altcoin prices go. Tether’s solvency is an ever-present concern. Scams and scammers abound. Most projects will end up worthless.

These conditions exist when everybody’s doing laser eyes and when everybody’s talking about goblin town.

When you wait for prices to go up, you get all of that risk with less of the reward.

I realize traders need to wait for the prices to go up. That’s the point—wait for confirmation of whatever direction the market’s going, then grab a little piece of that move, cash out, and wait for another opportunity. When you lose, you lose a little. When you win, you win a lot. 

And you never have to worry about crypto because you don’t really want it in the first place, you want to sell it for more than you bought it for.

Are you a trader? Is that your goal? 

Bear market, bro. Sell the rips, take profits, easy risk management

I hear ya.

That kind of thinking takes me back to the beginning of 2019, which most people consider a bear market. Bitcoin’s price only doubled that year. Big letdown.

I sold half of my crypto in March 2019. Some data models and traders said we should expect bitcoin’s price to drop from $4,000 to $3,000, and I figured I’d buy it back later at a big discount.

It didn’t work out the way I expected.

Fortunately, altcoins didn’t budge much when bitcoin zoomed. I had a heavy allocation to altcoins, and still do, so I was able to basically buy my tokens back in early April at roughly the same price I sold at. I lost maybe 10% overall, plus fees.

That 10% is a lot of money now, but what can you do? A lot of people didn’t buy until the price went above $10,000, just before the market crashed in July after bitcoin briefly tapped $14,000.

You’d be surprised how many people refused to buy below $4,000 because it was too risky, but happily bought at $10,000 thinking it was a sure thing. 

On top of that, lots of people took profits on the way up, only to see the market go even higher—and then never come back to the price they sold at. Or worse, buy back in higher.

Good sailors don’t fear choppy waters

So, “only up” from here?

We shall see. When you buy cryptocurrencies, you’re buying experimental financial technology. Nobody knows how to value these things.

As of today, any price between $21,700 and $150,000 fits into the “normal” range of bitcoin’s volatility. Altcoins can go up or down 50% at any moment in bull and bear markets.

Will we get the +100% upswings we’ve seen in previous bear markets? Or another +30% drop, as we’ve seen in previous bull markets? Experts on both sides have called for each of these outcomes.

Does the world go into a global recession? Will the US and Chinese economies continue to slow down? Can Japan sustain the yen? Can low- and middle-income countries pay their sovereign debt? Will the war in Ukraine spill over to other countries and cause food shortages? 

What other financial calamity lurks just around the corner, hidden today by the vagaries of the markets and the fog of financial speculation?

Somebody knows, but I don’t. As of today, I’m buying bitcoin and altcoins until bitcoin’s price reaches $40,000.

(That price will change over time, based on my plan.)

Read my Plan

You could wait until the market gathers some momentum. At what price will that be? Somewhere above $40,000? $50,000? $60,000?

At that point, all the decisions will get harder. Prices will keep going up. Drops will go lower than you could ever imagine. Every bullish fractal will seem utterly convincing. Every bearish observation will seem utterly foolish. Each dip will seem like a buying opportunity, but only some will be.

And then, right before the market crashes, as it has so many times in bull and bear markets, you’ll hear somebody tell you to buy more bitcoin because it has to go up.

Yet, all the risks that exist in this moment will exist in that moment.

Cryptocurrency is a ruthless, selfish, nasty, dirty, speculative market full of people who don’t care about you or your welfare—doubly so when the price goes up.

Plan accordingly.

Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio.

Follow Me on Twitter.

• @mkhelfman

Learn how to earn…

• Engagement Rewards

Become part of our community.

• Telegram - Facebook Group - Discord

Follow our socials.

• Twitter - Instagram - Facebook

Subscribe to our podcast.

• YouTube - iTunes / Apple - Spotify

Subscribe to this publication.

• It’s free (for now)

Comment & Earn!

Share your thoughts and opinions on the topics covered within this blog in the comments below for your chance to win yourself an NFT. Click here for more information on our engagement rewards.

Discord | Twitter | Youtube

When you entered the crypto market, you found a lot of excitement. Data models predicted riches. YouTube and Twitter told you the market would explode to the upside.

It doesn’t feel that way today, but it should.

Since last summer, you’ve stood on the ground floor of the next leg up, and it’s a whole different experience. Scary. Exciting. Frustrating. Terrifying. Stressful. Hopeful. A mix of emotions.

Big upswings, big downswings. Supercycles and bear markets. Laser eyes and death crosses. Big players moving on. Little players moving up.

Crypto remains a wealth-creation machine, a generational opportunity to build lasting, durable wealth from owning a stake in the financial networks of the future.

It is also a cruel and vicious market. Only the most courageous and persistent survive.

To paraphrase a US general, you may have thought crypto is all glory, but I assure you, it is all hell.

We’ve been here before

In 2019, the market did 4x in six months to kick-start a three-year parabolic run, with upswings of +500% and downswings of +60% along the way. 

Do the swings of the past six months seem any more extreme?

When the market zooms for three months, you feel a sense of ecstasy and excitement. You can’t help but put money in—and everybody’s telling you to do just that.

When the market drops for three months, you feel a sense of terror and loss. You can’t help but take money out—and everybody’s telling you to do just that.

Both times, it feels like the right decision. Traders will insist it is.

And if you act on those instincts, you will never get ahead in this market. In other markets, maybe, but not crypto.

Empty promises

Perhaps the traders have something else in mind?

Last year, they told you that you’d get a repeat of 2017. Then, they said you’d get a repeat of 2013. Now, they’re saying you might end up with a repeat of 2012 or 2019.

What happened to $288,000 bitcoin by the end of 2021? Stock to flow says we should be above $100,000 now.

How could so many people say so many things that never came true? How could so many people who were so wrong so many times in the past, now be right?

Maybe it’s impossible to be right or wrong about the future.

If nobody knows what’s going to happen, how can anybody be right or wrong? And even if somebody is right or wrong, how do you know it’s anything more than a coincidence or a lucky guess?

Priya in the park yells “bear market” every time the price dips 5% or more and begs you to sell every upswing. Tony on the TV yells “supercycle” every time the price pumps 5% or more and begs you to buy every downswing.

Eventually, they’re going to be right.

What will you do about it?

Does it even matter? In 2019, bitcoin’s price ended more than 100% higher than it started. In 2020, its price tripled from start to end.

And most people finished down on their investment.

They chased the market. Meanwhile, people who bought in 2018 sold to these newcomers after the price went up.

In January, I published an article begging people to stop dollar-cost averaging blindly. While there’s never a bad time to buy bitcoin, some times are better than others. Just make the most of those opportunities and chill when the opportunities pass.

Buy low and HODL.

Judging from the comments, people didn’t like that advice. Frankly, they hated it and called it terrible and stupid. But it’s worked for me and it’s baked into my plan for bitcoin’s bull market.

Read About My Plan

With that plan, you’re down as much as 25% but probably closer to even on your investment, possibly up 600% or more.

(For altcoins, you may have a far wider range of returns. I’m down +99% on some altcoins and up more than 5,000% on others. Most pace or slightly beat the overall market.)

Over the long run, gamblers and competent traders might do better. Dollar-cost averagers will probably do worse.

Mark, you still call it a bull market. Why?

Like Richard Nixon did with his dog, I just want to say this right now, that regardless of what they say about my plan’s name, I’m going to keep it.

You can call it whatever you want—I’m sure you can think of some choice words to describe it. (Some with only four letters.)

Bitcoin’s price goes up 100% in bear markets and drops 50% in bull markets. That gives me the latitude to say “bull” and “bear” about pretty much anything I want.

In any event, it doesn’t matter.

With my plan, you will never have to think about bull or bear, right or wrong, short or long. You won’t have to time the market, take profits, or buy the peaks. Ideally, you will never sell (though you probably will have to at some point).

You will simply take advantage of opportunities as they come and let the market do its thing.

That way, this market will never let you down.

Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio.

Follow Me on Twitter.

• @mkhelfman

Learn how to earn…

• Engagement Rewards

Become part of our community.

• Telegram - Facebook Group - Discord

Follow our socials.

• Twitter - Instagram - Facebook

Subscribe to our podcast.

• YouTube - iTunes / Apple - Spotify

Subscribe to this publication.

• It’s free (for now)

Comment & Earn!

Share your thoughts and opinions on the topics covered within this blog in the comments below for your chance to win yourself an NFT. Click here for more information on our engagement rewards.

Discord | Twitter | Youtube

Did you hear about Goblin Town?

Apparently, the crypto market’s in it.

What’s Goblin Town?

“A dark, depressing place where dreams die and anguish reigns.”

Where I come from, we call that a “day job.”

I get it. Since the market reached its zenith on November 8, 2021, overall trading volume has dropped every month, along with prices.

Actually, prices have gone up for three months.

Also, on a monthly basis, volume peaked in December 2020, not November 2021. It’s gone down for 15 months, even though bitcoin made multiple new all-time highs over that time.

See for yourself:

• Bitcoinity

• TradingView

Mark, that can’t be. 2021 was crazy! Laser eyes, supercycle, etc.

Yea. Kinda like when you get to a party at 2 am. Everybody’s happy but you already missed most of the fun. You only get the tail end and the hangover that comes the next day.

To be fair, volume is not a meaningful statistic and it will continue to mean less as more money flows to derivatives and investment funds instead of the spot market.

Those products let people speculate on crypto prices without actually buying or selling crypto. The spot market still sets prices, but a lot of the volume flows elsewhere. Maybe not the best metric to look at.

Can you ever really find clarity in a single metric?

Be careful with conclusions

For example, entity data, a type of analysis that came into vogue last year. This data uses inference and heuristics to figure out how transactions are linked to one another. From that, analysts can identify unique entities and the bitcoins they control.

Its best producer, Glassnode, warns people that the data includes a lot of guesswork.

On top of that, entity data obscures what the actual bitcoins are doing, which is for me the most important information you get from on-chain data. An entity can buy, sell, and move 10 bitcoins and leave no trace in the entity data. To find those bitcoins, you need to look at other metrics.

At the end of the day, I don’t need to know what the entities are doing, I need to know what the bitcoins are doing.

Some prefer whale watching. A few of the biggest wallets have an uncanny ability to send bitcoin out of their wallets near the local tops and bring bitcoin into their wallets near the local bottoms.

Often, they’re off by weeks, during which time the price can move 25-50%. Sometimes, they send at bottoms and receive at tops. How reliable are they?

Many people apply some form of technical analysis. Traders use that type of analysis to plan entries, exits, stop-losses, and hedges. Essentially, it’s a risk-management tool for people who want to make money from changes in the prices of cryptos.

Is that your goal? If not, are you sure you want to make decisions based on technical analysis?

What about fractals? Can you take one outcome from one event on one dimension at one point in time, then use it to form your expectations of this moment?

At best, you can stack a few fractals over each other across several dimensions with perfect alignment. Like, 5 or 6 independent points of data, not two coincidences across different timeframes. Unfortunately, you’re not going to find those very often.

That one perfect metric

Every chart, metric, model, and indicator has its limits. Accept it for what it can tell you, not more than that.

With custodial accounts, multi-sig wallets, investment products, private deals, Lightning Network, and mixers, on-chain data gets less useful.

With smaller floats, low balances on exchanges, more leverage, and more people with access to quality market intelligence, technical analysis gets less useful.

Does that mean you should throw your hands up and dollar-cost average forever? Give up trying to use observation and reflection to understand how people act in various market conditions?

No.

Just don’t think every data has holds the key to success. Thinking only goes so far and you can never see the full picture no matter what data you have.

Choose your conclusions wisely.

Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio.

Follow Me on Twitter.

• @mkhelfman

Learn how to earn…

• Engagement Rewards

Become part of our community.

• Telegram - Facebook Group - Discord

Follow our socials.

• Twitter - Instagram - Facebook

Subscribe to our podcast.

• YouTube - iTunes / Apple - Spotify

Subscribe to this publication.

• It’s free (for now)

Comment & Earn!

Share your thoughts and opinions on the topics covered within this blog in the comments below for your chance to win yourself an NFT. Click here for more information on our engagement rewards.

Discord | Twitter | Youtube

During the Bitcoin Miami 2022 Conference, Cathie Wood, the CEO of Ark Invest, was asked about her vision for the future of Bitcoin. During her speech, Cathie Wood explained that she sees Bitcoin reaching a price of $1 million by 2030. Cathie Wood has been a long-time believer in Bitcoin and certainly given Ark Invest's positions, she wasn't going to be Bearish on the future of Bitcoin.

Following this speech, some people contacted me to ask what I thought of her prediction of a $1 million Bitcoin price by 2030.

So I'm going to try to ask you what I think. The first thing is that I'm not going to give you a straight answer like “Yes, Cathie Wood is right” or “No, Cathie Wood is wrong”. Like you, but also like her, I cannot know what the price of Bitcoin will be in 2030. So I cannot assure you that Cathie Wood is right or wrong.

Only time will tell.

You need to focus on what Bitcoin brings to the world

However, I can tell you something much more important. The price of Bitcoin moves at its own pace because Bitcoin is a free market. So there can be, and often is, a difference between the fundamentals of Bitcoin that we Bitcoiners can perceive, and the valuation of Bitcoin on the spot market that corresponds to the feeling of all the participants in this market.

This is the fair value of Bitcoin, because the market has decided so, but there is always a lag time before the fundamentals of Bitcoin are taken into account by the market and this reflects on its price.

So the important thing is to focus on the fundamentals of Bitcoin. What does Bitcoin bring to the world? Is the supply of Bitcoin becoming scarcer? Are we seeing more and more HODlers over a year old on the market?

And so on. These are currently things that you see when you look at the on-chain data. It's not yet bearing fruit as some would hope, but that will come with time. Patience is the key with Bitcoin. You know this because I tell you this constantly.

Second, Bitcoin offers everyone a P2P payment system whose transactions cannot be censored. A system that belongs to all its users. In a world that is more uncertain than ever, the Bitcoin protocol gives you incredible guarantees. With Bitcoin, you can take real control over the fruits of your labor.

Bitcoin protects you from censorship, confiscation, and the infinite monetary inflation that is the original sin of the current monetary and financial system. So more and more people will open their eyes to the flaws of the current system, but also to the fact that Bitcoin is the cure.

The price of Bitcoin will rise sharply in the future, but there's no need to set goals with specific dates

What interests me personally is that Bitcoin addresses the problem that millions of people will have in the coming years. So the adoption of Bitcoin will be massive in my opinion. And since the supply of Bitcoin is hard-capped at 21 million units no matter what, you know what that means: the price of Bitcoin is bound to rise sharply in the future.

This will be the result of the application of the principles governing the law of supply and demand.

I don't know how fast this will happen. If Bitcoin continues to keep pace with the adoption of the Internet, then we will have around a billion users by 2030. With that number of users, it is not unrealistic to think that Bitcoin's market cap will have surpassed that of gold which is currently $12.5T. This would give us a Bitcoin price of around $430K.

This is entirely possible, but then things could go even faster. Or things could go at a slower pace. And that's where setting goals like Cathie Wood does is dangerous. Many will buy Bitcoin based on these types of predictions that are just opinions.

There is a great risk that these people will not understand the why of Bitcoin and will then start selling their BTC en masse if the announced goals are not met. This is what happened at the end of 2021 with the S2F Model. Too many people were taking this model for granted. But it was not an exact science. We then saw many people selling their BTC at a loss. A huge collective disappointment that has helped the price of Bitcoin fall by 50% since its ATH in November 2021.

However, the fundamentals of Bitcoin had not changed. Only the vision of buyers who didn't understand the why of Bitcoin had changed.

Final Thoughts

If you are going to buy Bitcoin (and that’s a great idea), you must do it for the right reasons. You have to do it because you fundamentally believe in Bitcoin, not because some people give you guarantees about the price of Bitcoin at a certain time.

That never works, because the price of Bitcoin is never guaranteed. Only its protocol gives you certainty. Once you understand this, you will have taken a big step in the Bitcoin revolution, and you can become a long-term HODLer who keeps accumulating patiently. Because that's what Bitcoin is all about in the years to come.

And when we get to 2030, we'll see where we stand. Stay strong, Stay Bitcoin HODLers!

Twitter

• @ssaurel

In Bitcoin We Trust

• Medium

• Newsletter

• Publish0x

• Reddit

• Quora for all the questions you have on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

Comment & Earn!

Share your thoughts and opinions on the topics covered within this blog in the comments below for your chance to win yourself an NFT. Click here for more information on our engagement rewards.

Discord | Twitter | Youtube

The weeks are going on and on for the Bitcoin market. Bitcoin will now record its 9th weekly red candle. Last week we were already talking about an extremely rare situation for the 8th weekly red candle. How would you describe this 9th weekly red candle?

I leave it to you to propose your ideas in the comments.

Anyway, we can see that extreme fear is dominating the market now. This fear is linked to the uncertainty of the situation for the months to come. More inflation? Recession? Stagflation? Both? No one knows what lies ahead, which complicates the work of central bankers and therefore the vision of investors in the financial markets:

Thus, the fear that prevails in the Bitcoin market is also noticeable in all financial markets. Even gold is not taking off, which is surprising to many given the current uncertainty. It has to be said that gold is starting to tire. Why? Many are simply fed up with its manipulated market. Of course, gold remains an established reserve value for centuries, but individuals want something more relevant to their times.

That's where Bitcoin comes in. Digital gold on steroids, because it allows for so much more.

Bitcoin's current price does not change its fundamentals

So of course, all of this is not materializing on the price of Bitcoin which is around $29K as I write this. Retail investors are absent from all liquid markets and prefer to wait wisely. This can be seen in the very low trading volumes.

Yet, despite the fear that Terra's collapse has added to the market, the opportunity with Bitcoin is now. While a major financial crash could occur, Bitcoin will be your lifeline.

It's hard for some to see that in a market dominated by fear, and where Bitcoin's opponents are having a field day. Christine Lagarde has just assured once again that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value. Perhaps she feels obliged to repeat this constantly to convince herself ...

Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft who considered the Internet to be “a passing fad” in the late 90s, also assures you that Bitcoin has no value. And therefore no future. Just hearing him talk about Bitcoin like that makes me even more bullish than before, I must say.

Between these naysayers who are taking advantage of the current uncertainty, some investors are taking the high road. When they're billion-dollar investors, that's something that speaks to you more than when I tell you that the opportunity with Bitcoin is now.

Bill Miller strengthens his position in BTC, as he sees Bitcoin as insurance against financial catastrophe

This is especially true of Bill Miller, a famous investor, and fund manager. The man built his fortune by founding the investment firm Miller Value Partners. I already told you about him at the beginning of 2022 when I said that the secret for this year would be to focus on the number of BTC you HODL, not the price of Bitcoin at the moment T:

In Bitcoin We Trust Newsletter

Focus on the Number of BTC You HODL, Not the Current Price of Bitcoin in Weak Money.

This issue of In Bitcoin We Trust Newsletter is for all subscribers. To get more insights on Bitcoin, you may be interested to upgrade to the premium package…

Read more

4 years ago · 1 like · Sylvain Saurel

Well, Bill Miller has more confidence than ever in Bitcoin, which he sees as the best possible hedge against the potential big financial crash ahead. What makes him so confident in Bitcoin is that it cannot be controlled by the powerful in the current system:

“When the U.S. pulled out of Afghanistan, Western Union stopped sending remittances there or taking them from Afghanistan, but if you had Bitcoin, you were fine. Your Bitcoin is there. You can send it to anyone in the world if you have a phone.”

What is happening with the war in Ukraine also confirms this. Bitcoin is helping all those who cannot rely on the current monetary and financial system daily. There are more and more of them.

For Bill Miller, “Bitcoin is an insurance policy”, because “Bitcoin works without the intervention of central banks or governments”. The investor took the opportunity to make fun of Mike Novogratz, who had the logo of Luna, the cryptocurrency that recently crashed, tattooed on his arm: “maybe you should have had a Bitcoin on your arm, it would be a bit more durable than this one”.

Indeed, as far as durability is concerned, it's better to have the Bitcoin logo tattooed on your arm than a Sh*tcoin. Anyway, everyone does what they want with their body. It'll be a souvenir for Mike Novogratz.

Putting his money where his mouth is, Bill Miller invested half of his funds in Bitcoin:

“This time I went back to buying it at $30,000, when it had dropped from $69,000. The idea was this: there are a lot more people using it, there's a lot of money coming in from the venture capital world. Bitcoin can provide insurance against financial catastrophe that no other asset can. And its value can increase ten or fifty times.”

Final Thoughts

Bill Miller is not the only billionaire investor who fundamentally believes in Bitcoin. There are more and more of them, and I already told you about them at the very beginning of 2022 here:

In Bitcoin We Trust Newsletter

Still Thinking Bitcoin Is a Madoff-Style Ponzi Scheme? Listen to the World’s Best Hedge Fund Managers Investing in Bitcoin

This issue of In Bitcoin We Trust Newsletter is for all subscribers. To get more insights on Bitcoin, you may be interested to upgrade to the premium package…

Read more

4 years ago · 2 likes · Sylvain Saurel

What I want you to understand here is that this is not the time to panic. Uncertainty obstructs the vision of most market participants, but you have to make the effort to look past it. If you do, then you will understand why Bill Miller is so Bullish on Bitcoin.

You will do the same as I and all other Bitcoiners: you will be patient in continuing to learn about Bitcoin during this moment of consolidation with the price of Bitcoin seemingly stuck below $30K. This is reminiscent of what we experienced in the summer of 2020 when the price of Bitcoin seemed to be stuck between $9k and $10K. The rest is history.

So be patient.

Twitter

• @ssaurel

In Bitcoin We Trust

• Medium

• Newsletter

• Publish0x

• Reddit

• Quora for all the questions you have on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

Comment & Earn!

Share your thoughts and opinions on the topics covered within this blog in the comments below for your chance to win yourself an NFT. Click here for more information on our engagement rewards.

Discord | Twitter | Youtube

Almost six months after bitcoin’s price reached its all-time high and roughly ten months after its 2021 low of $28,500, people still argue about whether crypto is in a bull or bear market.

What do those terms mean for an asset whose price goes up 100-300% in bear markets and crashes 30-50% in bull markets?

From the start of 2019 until the end, bitcoin’s price went up 120% and seemingly everybody called it a bear market.

Some people say our most recent crypto bull market started in December 2020, with the first new all-time high since 2017—after the price had already gone up 600% in less than two years.

Now, you hear some people claim April 2021 was the peak of the cycle and all of the more recent higher-highs were part of a dead-cat bounce.

In other words, they think we had a nearly three-year bear market followed by a five-month bull market and now we’re one year into a bear market that’s already seen two new all-time highs. 

Seems odd.

If the shoe fits . . .

Fitting, though, for a market as crazy as this one. 

With crypto, you get 100% pumps in the middle of raging bear markets and 50% drops in the middle of massive uptrends. 25% upswings and downswings are normal—sometimes barely noticeable on a price chart. 

Check out all of the big swings. They happen in bull and bear markets alike—and that’s before we include the longer MOON FOMO LAMBO upswings that probably brought you into crypto.

After November’s all-time high, bitcoin’s price spent two months going down, then three months going up. Its price is still higher now than three months ago, something we’ve never seen in any previous bitcoin bear market.

Can you have a bear market where prices spend more time in an uptrend than a downtrend? 

What about percentages? In September 2020, many altcoins dropped 50-80%. Likewise in January 2021. Both times, in the middle of a massive bull run.

When those drawdowns happen in the middle of a raging bull market, you call them corrections. One or two months later, back to zooming.

Today, you call them bear markets. Same drops but the zooms take a lot longer.

Wen moon?

Suffice to say, we haven’t seen anything that looks like a classic bottom on a trading chart, nor clear signals in on-chain data or activities in the derivatives markets. 

Then again, last year we didn’t see anything that looked like a classic top on a trading chart, nor clear signals in on-chain data or activities in the derivatives markets.

Prices seemingly went up a lot, then went down a lot, then up a lot, then down a lot.

What happens if bitcoin’s price goes to $50,000 before it drops to $35,000 in a massive liquidation event? Does that count as “the bottom” or another “higher low” since January’s $33,000 nadir?

Mark, stop beating around the bush, is the bottom in or not? 

I’m not beating around the bush. Maybe there is no bottom or top. 

What if this market is destined to go up and down forever?

What about April 2021, October 2021, and November 2021? Peaks, right?

Not peaks.

What about June 2021, January 2022, and whatever crash we’re about to get? Bottoms, right?

Not bottoms.

That’s a cop-out. You just don’t want to be wrong.

Nah. How can anybody be right or wrong about something that hasn’t happened yet?

Once you get into right and wrong, you miss the point. Too many people get psyched out with “bull” and “bear” markets. Take the market as it comes and make the best decisions you can. Bitcoin will decide who’s right or wrong.

Defy labels

Maybe it’s ok to appreciate the larger trends and dynamics around you, without forcing labels onto them?

Of course, at some point, you have to put a label on things. Otherwise, nobody will understand what you’re talking about. 

Just let’s not make the label matter more than the intent.

Bull market or bear market, this market gives you all sorts of opportunities, often when you least expect it.

Since the summer of 2021, this market has gathered itself for the next leg up. We saw clear, textbook consolidation among market participants even as bitcoin’s price doubled from its June low of $28,500.

In November and December, we shed some institutions and summer tourists. In December and January, we shed some whales and leveraged traders. In February, we shed defensive profit-takers as institutions trickled back in, some buyers re-entered, and diamond hands gobbled up whatever remained.

Now, miners have started to ship off bitcoin in clumps and we see spikes of selling from different corners of the market, but not broadly. Meanwhile, we see buying and accumulation across the board, but not in big volume.

Bull market or bear market?

Maybe it doesn’t matter.

Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio.

Follow Me on Twitter.

• @mkhelfman

Learn how to earn…

• Engagement Rewards

Become part of our community.

• Telegram - Facebook Group - Discord

Follow our socials.

• Twitter - Instagram - Facebook

Subscribe to our podcast.

• YouTube - iTunes / Apple - Spotify

Subscribe to this publication.

• It’s free (for now)

Comment & Earn!

Share your thoughts and opinions on the topics covered within this blog in the comments below for your chance to win yourself an NFT. Click here for more information on our engagement rewards.

Discord | Twitter | Youtube

Sentiment in the Bitcoin market is not looking good right now. It's red and gloomy, according to the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index. One day is like another with extreme fear that never seems to end.

Under these conditions, the fear of a Bear Market is back in the spotlight. Some people are now talking about nothing else. On Twitter and other social networks, there is a never-ending battle between supporters of a Bullish scenario for the coming months and supporters of a Bearish scenario.

As you know, I am a Bullish scenario supporter. I have already explained to you that I believe that the price of Bitcoin could still reach $100K in 2022. As always, this is just my opinion, and I could be wrong. If I was, I would honestly admit it, because nobody is perfect, including me of course.

People afraid of a Bitcoin Bear Market should refer to very old advice from Warren Buffett

In the meantime, if you are afraid of a coming Bear Market, are paralyzed by the idea of accumulating more BTC right now, or are even tempted to sell your Bitcoin, I will remind you of what Warren Buffett said in 1977 in the letter he wrote to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway.

What? Warren Buffett again?!

But he's an old man who hates Bitcoin... Why is he still talking about him? This is the type of message I get when I write articles about Warren Buffett or Charlie Munger.

As I explain every time, even though I think they are outdated when it comes to new technologies, which include Bitcoin, I believe they have incredible knowledge in many other areas. I would be wrong not to read their opinions simply because they don't understand anything about Bitcoin. Their history in the financial markets speaks for itself.

And generally speaking, I make it a rule to always listen to people who disagree with me, as long as their arguments are well constructed and they are respectful. That's how you can develop your critical thinking skills in life and move forward.

That being said, here is what Warren Buffett said at the time:

“We ordinarily make no attempt to buy equities for anticipated favorable stock price behavior in the short term. In fact, if their business experience continues to satisfy us, we welcome lower market prices of stocks we own as an opportunity to acquire even more of a good thing at a better price.”

Berkshire Hathaway's immense successes since then have clearly shown how excellent Warren Buffett's approach was. We are therefore entitled to be inspired by it as soon as we understand its deep meaning.

What is this deeper meaning?

Well, Warren Buffett tells us that as soon as he fundamentally believes in a business, he has no reason to doubt it because the price of its shares on the stock market is falling. This is part of market cycles. There are ups and downs. As an investor, you have to deal with it and take the long view to take full advantage of the opportunities that market drops offer.

When everyone is panicking, you need to focus on the fundamentals of Bitcoin and ask yourself the right questions

So when everyone is panicking, Warren Buffett will accumulate more shares of a company at a discount. If he believed in a company when the price of its stock was $69 and the fundamentals have not changed, he will strengthen his position when the price is at $38.

You can see that I did not price these numbers randomly: $69K is the ATH of the Bitcoin price reached in November 2021, while $38K is the Bitcoin price as I write this.

The question you need to ask yourself right now is the question Warren Buffett asks himself about the stock market: Have the fundamentals of Bitcoin changed since you bought BTC for over $50K?

The answer seems to me to be clearly NO. I use the verb “seem” here because that is my feeling. You have to make up your mind about the fundamentals of Bitcoin. Maybe you will come to a different conclusion. I don't, even though the security of the Bitcoin network is increasing all the time. As proof, the Hash Rate of the Bitcoin network is at its highest:

What does this mean? That BTC miners continue to believe in the future of Bitcoin. Also, the supply of BTC on the exchanges is at a 4-year low. BTC miners also continue to accumulate BTC. The Lightning Network, which is the future of Bitcoin as a means of everyday payment, is seeing its adoption accelerate exponentially.

Final Thoughts

I'll stop there, but there are plenty of signs that this revolution continues to move in the right direction in the future. From the moment you believed in Bitcoin at $69K, you can only see Bitcoin at $38K as an incredible opportunity to accumulate more at a reduced price.

To take advantage of this, you will of course need to be able to properly redefine your time horizon with Bitcoin. If you do, you'll see that this is a unique opportunity. To put your mind at rest, I urge you to stick to the only indicator that makes sense when it comes to investing in Bitcoins over the long term:

In Bitcoin We Trust Newsletter

The Only Indicator You Need To Focus on To Stay Relaxed With the Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin is the only truly free market in the world. Users are always able to find the equilibrium price with Bitcoin. Trading never stops. Volatility is a feature of Bitcoin, not a bug. The short-term price of Bitcoin will be more sensitive to the emotions of investors or the attempts of the Whales to manipulate it…

Read more

4 years ago · Sylvain Saurel

That's why if you're scared of a Bitcoin Bear Market, but fundamentally believe in the Bitcoin revolution, Warren Buffett's advice from 1977 applies here: the best thing to do is to seize the opportunity to accumulate more BTC at a discount, then be patient.

Twitter

• @ssaurel

In Bitcoin We Trust

• Medium

• Newsletter

• Publish0x

• Reddit

• Quora for all the questions you have on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

Comment & Earn!

Share your thoughts and opinions on the topics covered within this blog in the comments below for your chance to win yourself an NFT. Click here for more information on our engagement rewards.

Discord | Twitter | Youtube

After months, or even years for some, the moment has finally arrived: you've decided to get into the Bitcoin world.

First of all, let me congratulate you!

Bitcoin is an incredible monetary revolution that will not only change your worldview but also your future for the better. However, just as the price of Bitcoin never moves linearly, your journey through the Bitcoin revolution will not be a smooth one.

You will go through different phases.

After buying Bitcoin for the first time, you may find that the price of Bitcoin is not rising fast enough. You were warned about the volatility of Bitcoin, and now its price is stagnating. And yes, there are phases of sideways movement for the price of Bitcoin.

This is the first surprise for you.

Some people then turn to Altcoins. After all, you see stories every day of lucky kids who bought Sh*tcoins by betting several thousand dollars and eventually made a fortune. The lure of winning is too strong, and you end up turning away from Bitcoin.

You will choose to speculate without ever making the effort to deepen your knowledge every day.

You'll miss the point. It's a bit like choosing to go to a casino in Las Vegas and gamble away all your hard work at roulette. Some people win, but it never lasts very long. You will always end up losing big due to greed that will only get bigger and bigger.

You will lose time, and you will not understand why Bitcoin is a revolution that liberates the people. Your chances of understanding that Bitcoin is a freedom technology will be dashed at this point. Not indefinitely, but at least for as long as it takes for your dreams of fortune to fade with these Sh*tcoins whose value will eventually fall.

Some people go so far as to make excuses for themselves by saying things like, “Yes, I know I'm buying Sh*tcoins, but it's only so I can have more fiat currency to buy Bitcoin with”.

You can be pretty sure that these people will never do that. They won't be able to get out at the right time and stop in time to get more BTC than when they started gambling. You may well be one of the counterexamples, but that is not the norm. The norm is that more than 95% of people who follow this path lose big.

That's the reality!

Once you are disappointed in your dreams of a quick fortune with Altcoins, you will eventually go back to basics. You will return to Bitcoin, which is the real revolution. If you know how to learn from your past mistakes, then you will no longer give in to greed. You will be able to resist it.

You'll finally have time to focus on what's most important: constantly deepening your knowledge of Bitcoin and money in general. That's how you'll get back to what I call the Four Keeps of Bitcoin: Keep Learning, Keep Buying, Keep Stacking, Keep HODLing.

It's not as exciting as the false promises of Sh*tcoins founders, but it's something more solid that will stand the test of time. You will discover the seven deadly sins of the current system that will lead to its collapse sooner or later. From then on, your convictions about the absolute necessity of Bitcoin for the world of the future will grow stronger.

This strength of conviction that you will develop over time will allow you to have the patience to take full advantage of the Bitcoin revolution. While there is no substitute for making personal mistakes to get ahead in life, I can already give you a clue as to the path you should follow as you enter the world of Bitcoin.

That path is the one shown on the left in the illustration in this article. By going straight to the winning approach with Bitcoin, you will save valuable time, but also money. You'll protect the fruits of your labor, and you'll be able to thank yourself in a few years for choosing the only path that is sustainable over time.

It's up to you.

Twitter

• @ssaurel

In Bitcoin We Trust

• Medium

• Newsletter

• Publish0x

• Reddit

• Quora for all the questions you have on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

Comment & Earn!

Share your thoughts and opinions on the topics covered within this blog in the comments below for your chance to win yourself an NFT. Click here for more information on our engagement rewards.

Discord | Twitter | Youtube

In recent days, an article by the mysterious Mr. Whale has caused quite a stir in the Bitcoin world. Published on Medium, the article claims that Michael J. Saylor is secretly selling his Bitcoin. The title gives you an idea of the content of this article:

“Michael Saylor is Secretly Selling His Bitcoin and Doesn’t Want You To Know.”

Generally, I don't waste time commenting on FUD. However, some of you have contacted me directly by email. So I thought it would be interesting to write an article to share my position on the subject.

The first thing I think is important to say is that I cannot guarantee 100% at any given time that Michael J. Saylor has not sold his Bitcoin. No one can. And certainly not this mysterious Mr. Whale, who seems to have been well known in the cryptocurrency world as a scammer for several years.

He has changed his name several times, but each time his ambitions seem to be the same. I'll come back to that later.

So Mr. Whale assumes that he has discovered some of the addresses used by Michael J. Saylor to conceal Bitcoin sales. He says that to avoid having to notify the SEC, Michael J. Saylor had been moving Bitcoin into a mysterious LLC. Is this LLC as mysterious as Mr. Whale's identity? Mr. Whale doesn't answer that, of course.

In my opinion, Mr. Whale has no proof of what he is saying. He has no way of knowing what addresses MicroStrategy uses to store his BTC. These are just assumptions that he uses to support his narrative. Mr. Whale also says that Michael J. Saylor called to buy Bitcoin when he was at his peak in November 2021, to make money off of his millions of followers. That’s true. Michael J. Saylor dit that.

What Mr. Whale fails to mention is that Michael J. Saylor continued to call for buying Bitcoin after that. He did even better than that, as he continued to buy BTC as shown by the purchase tracker I maintain on the “DCA Bitcoin like Michael J. Saylor” page:

Michael J. Saylor has been attacked by Mr. Whale for months on the theme that he is a big loser of the DotCom bubble. Also, Mr. Whale shows pictures of Michael J. Saylor overweight to make fun of him. Is this a classy thing for Mr. Whale to do? I don't think so, because we can't know what health problems Michael J. Saylor may have had, but then again, when you hide behind a mysterious pseudonym, it's easy to do that.

Michael J. Saylor does not hide behind a pseudonym and continues to publicly support Bitcoin even though he has made mistakes in the past or has been a vocal opponent of Bitcoin. He has acknowledged several times that he was initially wrong about Bitcoin before fully embracing the Bitcoin revolution in August 2020 when he realized his mistake.

Mr. Whale seems to think that you can't make mistakes in life. Again, it's easy to attack others when you hide behind a mysterious pseudonym.

You may decide to trust a stranger like Mr. Whale who hides his identity and claims to be a millionaire through his investments. This same Mr. Whale who claims to only want to help the greatest number of people to see the truth about Michael J. Saylor, but who has created a paid newsletter of course. Probably to help others.

I am not criticizing those who create paid versions of their newsletters, since I have done so myself. The difference is that I don't hide my identity, and more importantly, I never claimed to be a millionaire. I am not and I need to work for a living. Making my newsletter paid has allowed me to devote more time to writing more articles and helping more people since I write a lot of free articles too.

It's a win-win I think. I'm transparent with you on this.

This same Mr. Whale has several Twitter accounts that he uses to spread more and more FUD and try to instill fear in the Bitcoin world. Maybe the market will fall even further and the price of Bitcoin will go below $30K. Anything is possible with a free market like Bitcoin. Mr. Whale will tell everyone that he said so. Some will be amazed and think he can predict the future.

They will probably forget that he is calling this fall in the price of Bitcoins below $10K since the end of 2020...

In the meantime, the price of Bitcoin has had two ATHs above $60K. It is certainly easy to be right one day after so many times saying the same false thing. But Mr. Whale obviously won't tell you that. Do you still want to trust Mr. Whale over Michael J. Saylor?

You'll see that at the end of his articles on Medium, he posts an image he created to share his affiliate link on Medium, on which he highlights popular writers from Medium, completely unrelated to him. This is what he says to attract more people to pay for a Medium subscription by allowing him to earn a commission on their yearly subscription:

“Also, are you looking to become a member on Medium, support me, and read unlimited articles from me AND thousands of others on Medium? You can sign up using my special link, which will get you an amazing discount!”

Do you think this is the behavior of a contrarian millionaire investor as he claims to be?

I'm not a millionaire, but I doubt I would do this if I were a millionaire because of my investment genius. But after all, I'm not a genius. I'm just a guy who fundamentally believes in the Bitcoin revolution and writes to share his opinions. No more, no less.

So I prefer to believe Michael J. Saylor who seems to me to be much more honest in his approach than a mysterious anonymous account on the Internet who seems to have scammed many people in the past if we are to believe what a lot of people said about Mr. Whale on many forums. After all, we too can choose to believe the rumors about him, or spread them as he does about Michael J. Saylor.

Michael J. Saylor's response to this controversy seems excellent to me:

If MicroStrategy were to sell its Bitcoin, the SEC would be informed. Ignore this LLC story that Mr. Whale is putting forward to make noise and generate more money. The problem is that it works because Medium puts forward these types of controversial articles that generate a lot of clicks. However, should we accept that some liars say anything to generate more and more clicks and therefore money?

Do you still doubt what I just told you about Mr. Whale and think I am a blind Bitcoin Maximalist? It's still possible. After all, I could be wrong. But you should know that I was in fleeting contact with this Mr. Whale on Medium and Twitter in mid-2020 and mid-2021. He follows me on Twitter by the way:

At the time, he didn't publish this type of totally fake article and I had even offered to publish articles on the In Bitcoin We Trust Medium publication:

As you can see, I am transparent with you.

From the end of 2020, I was surprised to see that he started to publish this type of totally unfounded article like the one about Michael J. Saylor, but I didn't say anything, because I'm not interested in FUD of this type.

On Twitter, he contacted me via private message in May 2021 to ask me something amazing for a millionaire investor:

Do you think a millionaire would wonder if they could make more money on Medium by posting paid articles (via the Medium Partner Program) on publications?

Honestly, I doubt it. It made me doubt it even more, but I had since given up. What I just read about Michael J. Saylor made me want to bring this to light. I pulled it out today as a writer for In Bitcoin We Trust on Medium. I must admit that I had forgotten that he was still on the list of writers because I haven't had any contact with this guy for a long time, since I prefer substack as a platform to publish my articles now.

Once this article is published, I imagine that he will come out and say that this is all a campaign to hurt him and that he will question what I am writing about Bitcoin. Or maybe I'm so insignificant that he won't even know about it. That's not a concern for me. The important thing for me is simply to share my feelings on the subject to help as many people as possible to make their own opinion. Mine is done as you may have understood.

Maybe I'm wrong about Michael J. Saylor and Mr. Whale is right. After all, anything is possible in life. If this is the case, and this is ever proven, I will tell you in keeping with the Bitcoin motto: “Don't Trust, Verify”.

Nevertheless, all the elements I have in my possession today lead me to believe in Michael J. Saylor and to think that Mr. Whale is not who he claims to be. I therefore sincerely question all of Mr. Whale's claims and continue to believe that Michael J. Saylor is trustworthy.

Please feel free to tell me in the comments what you think about this.

Twitter

• @ssaurel

In Bitcoin We Trust

• Medium

• Newsletter

• Publish0x

• Reddit

• Quora for all the questions you have on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

Comment & Earn!

Share your thoughts and opinions on the topics covered within this blog in the comments below for your chance to win yourself an NFT. Click here for more information on our engagement rewards.

Discord | Twitter | Youtube

The IMF just released a report entitled “Crypto, Corruption, and Capital Controls: Cross-Country Correlations” which I strongly urge you to go read. It is always interesting to read what the IMF writes about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

The IMF surveyed over 110,000 people in more than 55 countries, interviewing between 2,000 and 12,000 people in each country, about their use of cryptocurrencies. The authors of the report found many reasons why cryptocurrencies may be more popular in one country than another. Among these reasons are the ones we all know: high inflation means that Bitcoin is more stable than a local currency.

So it is a necessity, rather than an alternative yet.

High inflation countries led by corrupt leaders use Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies far more than others according to an IMF study

Since poorer nations also tend to have higher capital controls: measures that prevent the flow of foreign funds in and out of the country's economy, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies also often represent a way to circumvent taxes and limits. This is among the 8 ways Bitcoin is already helping the poor daily.

The IMF study authors go on to write:

“A history of high inflation may make the domestic currency less attractive as a store of value. Past inflation is used as a proxy for the stability of the currency, which may affect the attractiveness of crypto assets as an alternative store of value.”

In this report, the IMF advocates for stricter international regulation of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. It won't surprise you to learn that the IMF wants KYC policies to be strengthened. The issue has recently come back to the forefront with a lot of lies being spread about Russia's alleged use to escape Western sanctions due to Putin's war on Ukraine.

But as I have already shown you, Bitcoin is not in a position to allow Russia to do that at the moment. And this is for various reasons, the first of which is too little liquidity given the current needs of the Russian economy.

Thus, the warnings of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) of the U.S. Treasury Department are to be taken with a pinch (a lot rather!) of salt, as well as the repeated attacks on this subject by American politicians such as Hilary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren.

For those who are interested in solutions to buy Bitcoin in no-KYC mode, I refer you to this article on the subject:

In Bitcoin We Trust Newsletter

Bitcoin and KYC Policies – Everything You Need To Know (Risks, How To Protect Yourself, …)

KYC. These three letters should not be unfamiliar to you, but I'll start with a quick reminder. KYC is the acronym for “Know Your Customer”. It is a regulation that applies to all companies that have relations with the banking world. These rules apply in most countries around the world and seek to ensure that a business that exchanges money or transmits money has appropriate information about each customer it serves…

Read more

4 years ago · 3 likes · 1 comment · Sylvain Saurel

Politicians from the world's major economic powers who are critical of Bitcoin did not like the fact that the exchange platforms refused to implement a ban on their Russian customers. Yet such an action would have been counterproductive, and above all, shameful. The Russian people are also suffering the consequences of Vladimir Putin's war. Thus, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are solutions to protect themselves from the indigence of a leader like Vladimir Putin.

Bitcoin is there to help each of its users. Whether Western leaders like it or not.

The authors of the IMF report go on to point out that according to their research, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are most used in highly corrupt countries. They take the example of Venezuela, but also of African countries. The usual anti-Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies clichés are then used. The IMF talks about the financing of illegal activities or even tax evasion. For them, the advantage of crypto assets is that they allow moving large amounts of money quickly and with great ease. All of this while freeing themselves from national borders.

At the end of the report, the authors say that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies should not be definitively condemned, but that the lack of strict regulation is a huge problem in their eyes.

IMF deliberately confuses cause and effect. Bitcoin helps fight corruption and money oppression

After reading this IMF report, my feeling is clear: the IMF is too quick to make an association by confusing cause and effect. Let me explain. If Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are used more in corrupt countries, it is primarily because it is in these countries that we find the most oppressive and corrupt leaders. Bitcoin does not promote corruption, it fights it.

So there are two ways to read this report. On the IMF side, they will try to make you believe that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are associated with corrupt countries by being causes that promote corruption. On my side, I see it as a consequence of the corruption of these countries.

The countries mentioned in the IMF report were already corrupt before Bitcoin was created. Bitcoin has merely provided a weapon for people to free themselves from the oppression and corruption of their leaders. Nothing more, nothing less. As always with the IMF and other global institutions, you must learn to step back and read between the lines.

The IMF's interest is to fight Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies to prevent a majority of the Earth's inhabitants from seeing through the flaws in the current system. They are protecting a system that is doomed to disappear. But this is getting so big, that even the general public is starting to wonder.

The truth is becoming more and more apparent to the general public. Some people just wander without going further, but I am convinced that more and more people will eventually look for a remedy to the flaws of the current system, be it economic, financial, or political.

And when that time comes, Bitcoin will be there to offer them a way out to take care of their future. The warnings of the IMF and the World Bank will not change that.

Twitter

• @ssaurel

In Bitcoin We Trust

• Medium

• Newsletter

• Publish0x

• Reddit

• Quora for all the questions you have on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

Comment & Earn!

Share your thoughts and opinions on the topics covered within this blog in the comments below for your chance to win yourself an NFT. Click here for more information on our engagement rewards.

Discord | Twitter | Youtube

Some say the Stock-to-Flow model is dead. Not me.

Even if S2F or S2Fx fail, we have lots of other models. 

Four-year cycles. Hash cycles. Supercycles. Expanding cycles. Shrinking cycles. All sorts of multiples, moving averages, and extrapolations. 

They're all great, but they also contradict each other. 

Peak in Spring 2022? October 2022? Sometime in 2023? Was it the April 2021 all-time high? Or the October 2021 all-time high? Or the November 2021 all-time high?

And at what price? $137,000? $250,000? $288,000? Higher?

Kevin Svenson decided to throw them all out, except one.

I find a lot of credence in what he says, though I’m not sure even halving cycles matter anymore. For that reason, I created my own model for bitcoin's price: the "Up and to the Right (U2R)" model. 

Learn About the U2R Model

How to use the U2R model

Click on this chart:

When the new page opens, look at the black line on whatever date you want, then assume bitcoin's price will be somewhere at, above, or below that black line on that day. Any price within a shaded region represents a normal variance.

How to calculate the U2R model

I don’t know. Ask its creator, Mabonyi. It’s a public indicator on TradingView, specifically the "BTC Log Curve Zones Light" indicator projected over the Brave New Coin chart of bitcoin's price over time.

I tried to ask for permission to use it. He (she?) didn’t respond to my DM.

Mark, you’re kidding, right?

No. I’m dead serious. This is a model for predicting bitcoin’s price. How is it any less valid than any other model?

Bitcoin’s price has oscillated around that black line for its entire history. That has to count for something.

Does that mean you should make any decisions based on U2R?

No. 

Do I make decisions based on U2R?

No.

Should anybody make decisions based on U2R?

No.

Mark, why are you giving us models that don’t predict price or help us make decisions?

I’m just trying to fit in with the other analysts.

Before you dismiss U2R, recognize it’s held up well for 13 years. With data models breaking left and right, maybe U2R is the data model that finally works?

Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio.

Follow Me on Twitter.

• @mkhelfman

Learn how to earn…

• Engagement Rewards

Become part of our community.

• Telegram - Facebook Group - Discord

Follow our socials.

• Twitter - Instagram - Facebook

Subscribe to our podcast.

• YouTube - iTunes / Apple - Spotify

Subscribe to this publication.

• It’s free (for now)

Comment & Earn!

Share your thoughts and opinions on the topics covered within this blog in the comments below for your chance to win yourself an NFT. Click here for more information on our engagement rewards.

Discord | Twitter | Youtube

The adoption of Bitcoin is growing steadily over time. The remarkable thing is that even Bitcoin's staunchest opponents will all come around sooner or later. It's only a matter of time. The most famous of them is Michael J. Saylor who went all Bitcoin for MicroStrategy in the summer of 2020. Since then, he has stuck to his strategy of buying Bitcoin in DCA mode.

The future will prove him right. Over the past few years, I've been fascinated to see Ray Dalio's change in attitude about Bitcoin. He didn't believe in it at all at first, and his talk has changed steadily as events have proven Bitcoiners right.

Ray Dalio is not yet a Bitcoiner, but he has bought and holds Bitcoin now. His attitude reminds me of the 7 steps of the incredible journey that takes people from skeptics to Bitcoiners. Here are the details. You'll see that you've probably been through these steps yourself and that people around you are stuck at some stage of this process.

Step 1: Skepticism

The general public generally discovers Bitcoin through the mainstream media, which rarely provide quality content. Often, the media simply denigrate Bitcoin by subjectively denouncing the associated risks.

The general public’s first contact with Bitcoin may also come from the negative statements made against it by central bankers and governments in developed countries.

Following this initial contact, the general public generally tends to adopt a skeptical stance toward Bitcoin. Indeed, since their governments tell them that Bitcoin is based on nothing, this must be true. Besides, Bitcoin is said to promote illegal activities and money laundering according to the governments of developed countries.

The first contact is therefore very negative and many people choose to put Bitcoin aside initially. This makes sense because Bitcoin is unlike anything you've ever seen before. It's in a category all its own.

Step 2: Questioning

As the economic situation in their country deteriorates, some people are asking questions. The constant inflation of the U.S. dollar is devaluing more and more what people own. Disappointed with the current monetary and financial system, some people come to question what money is and how it works.

University studies do not teach you what money is because the people who govern you, the central bankers or the economists find great interest in your ignorance.

Henry Ford once said:

“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”

If too many people were to realize that the current monetary and financial system is failing, a revolution would start in each of the most developed countries.

I would like to point out, however, that the situation is slowly approaching a revolution in many countries. When it is not a revolution that is approaching, we see that many people simply no longer have confidence in the people who govern them.

Step 3: Hesitation

The questioning step leads many people to understand that Bitcoin is currently the only credible alternative for the world to the current monetary and financial system. No one says that Bitcoin is perfect but it builds block by block a fairer system for the future of the world.

People are realizing that they cannot be certain that the purchasing power of 1 USD from today will still be equal to the purchasing power of 1 USD in 2050.

Decisions by central bankers and governments to use monetary expansion as the answer to all the world’s economic problems greatly devalue what they have. Bitcoin guarantees them that 1 BTC = 1 BTC no matter what. The maximum amount of Bitcoin that can be put into circulation is 21 million and it will not change. This is a verifiable fact.

The intrinsic properties of Bitcoin protect people better than fiat currencies have ever been able to do. When you buy 1 Bitcoin, you will forever own 1 Bitcoin out of the 21 million that will be put into circulation.

Step 4: Taking Action

The Earth’s population is growing all the time. The latest estimates suggest that the Earth will have 10 billion inhabitants in 2050. If Bitcoin continues its revolution and is adopted by the general public, this will make 21 million Bitcoins for 10 billion people.

In 2050, we will therefore have the equivalent of 1 Bitcoin for every 476 inhabitants on Earth.

Owning 1 Bitcoin in 2050 will therefore put you among the richest people in the world quite simply. This possibility, therefore, pushes people to step 4 to take action by buying Bitcoin. This action often consists of buying Bitcoin for between $500 and $1,000 just in case.

In Bitcoin We Trust Newsletter

This Simple Advice on Bitcoin From Satoshi Nakamoto Is All You Need To Know To Take Action

This issue of In Bitcoin We Trust Newsletter is for all subscribers. To get more insights on Bitcoin, you may be interested to upgrade to the premium package…

Read more

4 years ago · 1 like · Sylvain Saurel

In case Bitcoin becomes the revolution that many Bitcoiners keep talking about of course.

Step 5: The Deepening Of Knowledge

Once the action is taken and the first Bitcoin is in their possession, these people will deepen their knowledge of Bitcoin. This will lead them to secure their Bitcoin on a hardware wallet as they will quickly understand the following fundamental truth:

Not your keys, not your Bitcoin.

The Bitcoin stored on the trading platforms is not yours since these platforms could arbitrarily decide to block them or worse, get hacked as was the case with Mt. Gox in 2014.

If that happens, you will lose eventually all your Bitcoin.

As people become more knowledgeable, they realize that Bitcoin is much more than an investment. Bitcoin has broader social and economic implications for the world than traditional investments such as gold. Bitcoin represents a peaceful protest against a monetary and financial system that is no longer at the service of the people.

The examples of Venezuela and Argentina in Latin America already show the value of Bitcoin in enabling people to escape the bad political and economic decisions of corrupt politicians.

The timing of the first big drop in the price of Bitcoin helps to sort out the investors who will go further and those who will capitulate. Those who surrender at this point make a bad choice guided by fear. Everyone knows that fear is the enemy of winning investments. People who know how to control their emotions and who had bought Bitcoins in case they finally decide that they should continue to buy them and take advantage of the fear of others in the market.

Just in case, of course.

Step 6: Buy And Hold Bitcoin

Continuing to buy Bitcoin is tipping these people from the category of investors concerned about not missing out on a technological revolution in Bitcoiners’ 3-step strategy:

1. Buy BTC.

2. HODL BTC.

3. Repeat from Step 1.

Month after month, these people will therefore accumulate more and more BTC units and keep them safe within their hardware wallets. Time goes by, and the price of Bitcoin rises after falling. These up and down cycles are common, but these people are not afraid because HODLING Bitcoin has taught them the virtues of patience.

They’re becoming Bitcoin believers.

These people are developing growing confidence in Bitcoin. Many of them even become strong advocates ready to evangelize to their family and friends. Often, all this is a waste of time since everyone has to make his or her own way with Bitcoin before reaching the status of Bitcoiner in my opinion.

Step 7: Be A Bitcoiner

The final step in this adventure within the Bitcoin world is to become a Bitcoiner. You become certain that Bitcoin will establish itself in the future as an alternative to the current monetary and financial system that is flawed and not fixable.

Bitcoiner defends Bitcoin because it is certain that Bitcoin is building a fairer world for the future and it wants to be at the heart of this construction.

Being a Bitcoiner allows you to detach yourself from the day-to-day price of Bitcoin. Indeed, the current price of Bitcoin is nothing compared to what Bitcoin will bring to the world in the future.

Under these conditions, Bitcoiners don’t have any particular stress when they see the price of Bitcoin drop below $30,000 or even $4,000 as of March 2020. They know that Bitcoin will be even bigger in 10, 25, and 50 years.

Subscribe now

Twitter

• @ssaurel

In Bitcoin We Trust

• Medium

• Newsletter

• Publish0x

• Reddit

• Quora for all the questions you have on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

Comment & Earn!

Share your thoughts and opinions on the topics covered within this blog in the comments below for your chance to win yourself an NFT. Click here for more information on our engagement rewards.

Discord | Twitter | Youtube

Ah, death crosses and golden crosses. The bear and bull signals that traders love. 

Bitcoin’s price is up 40% since its January 2022 low and the overall market’s up 30% over that same time frame. This has left a lot of people wondering whether we’re in a bull or bear market. Maybe you’re wondering the same thing?

Guess what?

If bitcoin’s price stays at $46,000 for the next two months, it will print BOTH a golden cross AND a death cross. How’s that for clarity?

On the 1-day chart, it will print a golden cross in May.

Traders say that’s good. Bull market confirmed. Better days ahead!

On the 3-day chart, it will print a death cross in June. Traders say that’s bad. Bear market, death drop, despair.

Yes, if bitcoin’s price stays at approximately $46,000, it will print BOTH a golden cross AND a death cross.

No wonder so many people wonder whether we’re in a bull or bear market.

Fortunately, bitcoin’s price will probably not stay at $46,000 for the next two months. Only one of these outcomes will occur.

Which one? Golden or death?

It doesn’t matter

We’ve had two death crosses on the 3-day chart. Both times, we got a swift drop that led to a generational bottom within one month.

Does that mean we’re overdue for an “up forever” moment? The third time’s the charm?

We’ll see.

We’ve had eight golden crosses on the 1-day chart. Five times, bitcoin’s price went lower for days, weeks, and months afterward. Three times, it went up forever.

I’m not sure that the golden cross is as bullish as it sounds.

If you’re waiting for the death cross or golden cross to confirm your bull or bear bias, you may not get the confirmation you seek.

Meanwhile, it’ll be fun to see which cross comes first!

Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio.

Follow Me on Twitter.

• @mkhelfman

Learn how to earn…

• Engagement Rewards

Become part of our community.

• Telegram - Facebook Group - Discord

Follow our socials.

• Twitter - Instagram - Facebook

Subscribe to our podcast.

• YouTube - iTunes / Apple - Spotify

Subscribe to this publication.

• It’s free (for now)

Comment & Earn!

Share your thoughts and opinions on the topics covered within this blog in the comments below for your chance to win yourself an NFT. Click here for more information on our engagement rewards.

Discord | Twitter | Youtube

Some think 2021 killed data models of bitcoin’s price because pretty much every prediction failed. 

Stock-to-Flow promised $135,000 in December 2021 as a “worst-case scenario.”

Oops.

Bob Loukas’s Four-Year Cycle missed both the time and price of the cycle peak in 2021.

The current halving cycle doesn’t align with previous ones and logarithmic growth charts missed their targets.

Depending on who you ask, expanding cycles missed the peak (either April or November 2021, not sometime in the future, as predicted). 

Fractals from 2013 and 2017 bombed, too.

Does this mean data models are dead?

Not likely.

Perhaps 2021 killed blind faith in speculative theories, but the data models still persist. Dismiss them at your peril.

All within range

Data models leave a pretty wide margin for error.

Over the course of bitcoin’s history, its price has gone 400% higher and 70% lower than S2F’s predicted prices for months at a time—including over the past few months. You can see this in LookIntoBitcoin’s “model variance” in the rectangle below.

S2F is as valid now as it ever was.

Four-year cycles can be left- or right-translated. In other words, peaks and bottoms can come at any time or price.

Halving cycles have never shown many similarities in the timing or extent of price movements from one cycle to the next.

Logarithmic growth curves don’t specify the timing of peaks or bottoms and their creators constantly adjust them as time goes on.

The expanding cycle theory fits all of the peaks and bottoms—if only we could all agree on what’s a “peak” and a “bottom.”

Maybe you’re reading too much into the data models?

High expectations are never met

These models allow for so much deviation, you can’t disregard them just because the market strays from expectations. They’re all basically guessing about the future. Appreciate them for what they are and the insights they provide.

Unless you have a better way to visualize this market’s likely growth trajectory? I don’t.

When the market goes up a lot and then drops, people think it’s a peak. When the market drops a lot and then goes up, people think it’s a bottom. 

I just call that “normal” for a market that's been known to go up 100-300% in bear markets and drop 30-50% in bull markets. 

With such volatility, you need to give these models a lot of slack. They offer perspective and a way to conceptualize a noisy, speculative, challenging market.  

At the end of the day, you get to believe whatever you want. Try hard enough, you’ll find a data model that fits. 

Who knows? It may even be right.

Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio.

Follow Me on Twitter.

• @mkhelfman

Learn how to earn…

• Engagement Rewards

Become part of our community.

• Telegram - Facebook Group - Discord

Follow our socials.

• Twitter - Instagram - Facebook

Subscribe to our podcast.

• YouTube - iTunes / Apple - Spotify

Subscribe to this publication.

• It’s free (for now)

Comment & Earn!

Share your thoughts and opinions on the topics covered within this blog in the comments below for your chance to win yourself an NFT. Click here for more information on our engagement rewards.

Discord | Twitter | Youtube

The news has been a bombshell in recent hours.

Pavel Zavalniy, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy, has suggested that Russia could accept Bitcoin as a means of payment for its oil and gas exports in order to escape American and European sanctions. Indeed, America has blocked the Russian central bank from accessing its U.S. dollar reserves.

To continue to accept payments in US dollars when it cannot use them is de facto nonsense. Some even imagine that this war in Ukraine will be remembered in the future as the beginning of the end of the petrodollar era.

During the video in which Zavalniy hinted at this possibility, it was also said that it would concern countries friendly to Russia. By friendly countries, you must understand countries that do not follow the American and European sanctions against Russia.

In the video, Zavalniy explained that he had already offered China a payment in rubles and yuan:

“We have been proposing to China for a long time to switch to settlements in national currencies for rubles and yuan.”

To Turkey, which if it finds Putin's Russian-led war in Ukraine unacceptable continues to trade with it, payment in lira and rubles was proposed. And finally, Zavalniy said that Bitcoin was an alternative option that remained on the table:

“We can also trade Bitcoins.”

If Russia can do this, it is also because a law was passed in February 2022 to make Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies the equivalent of foreign currencies in Russia. So payment in Bitcoin is totally legal.

This was enough for all Bitcoiners to think that this would totally change the Bitcoin market in the short term. And this, while Zavalniy also clarified that for “unfriendly” countries, payment will be required in rubles. This is obviously aimed at all the countries of the European Union which are ultra dependent on Russian gas.

However, I don't think that this will have as much of an impact on the price of Bitcoin as some people think. At least in the short term, because in the medium to long term it could be different.

None of Russia's largest oil importers will be offered the Bitcoin option as a payment method

To better analyze the situation, here is an infographic detailing the countries that were buying the most oil from Russia during 2020:

I have not yet found such an infographic with 2021 figures, but I guess the ranking should not have changed much.

Here we can clearly see that China is the biggest importer of Russian oil in the world. Behind it, we have two European Union countries, with the Netherlands and Germany. For these three countries, whose cumulative oil purchases from Russia reached almost $40 billion, payment in Bitcoin is already excluded.

China has banned Bitcoin in 2021, and Russia is offering payments in rubles and yuan. As for the Netherlands and Germany, they are among the countries qualified as “unfriendly” by Russia. For them, Russia seems to want to demand payment in rubles from now on.

South Korea has started to apply sanctions to Russia but is still looking for a way to better protect itself from its dependence on Russian oil. Qualifying as an “unfriendly” country in the sense that Vladimir Putin's Russia understands it, South Korea should also have to pay in rubles for its Russian oil imports.

Going further, you can see that only Belarus is a Russian-friendly country in the top 10 of Russian oil importers. But Belarus will pay in rubles and not in Bitcoin probably.

In short, we are far from a game-changer here in terms of oil.

Russia's biggest gas importers won't be offered payment in Bitcoin either

Let's move on to Russian gas. Europe is clearly ultra dependent on Russian gas:

A country like Finland is more than 90% dependent on Russian gas. Germany is almost 50%. In short, it is difficult to do without the gas of the world's largest exporter in this area.

However, Zavalaniy's last message is unambiguous. The “unfriendly” countries, like those of the European Union, will have to pay for their Russian gas imports in rubles. So there is no question of having the Bitcoin alternative.

There will be nothing revolutionary here.

We can look at the BRICS, which have preferred not to align themselves with Western sanctions except for South Korea. China will not pay in Bitcoin as seen before. India has already started paying in rupees and rubles for Russian oil. Bitcoin will probably not be used either. I imagine that Brazil and South Africa will also be wary of being the first to pay for Russian oil in Bitcoin.

At least 3 reasons why this announcement by Russia will not change anything for Bitcoin in the short term

Zavalniy's statement should therefore be taken for what it is: a way to retaliate against Western sanctions against Russia. A way to put pressure on the West by brandishing the Bitcoin threat. A threat that is very real, insofar as the Bitcoin system would be perfect as a means of P2P payment whose transactions cannot be censored.

However, it may be a bit early for Bitcoin to be used in this way. It will surely be in the future, but I see it more in the medium term. So, here are the 3 big reasons why we shouldn't get too excited about this announcement from Russia:

1. Russia has added constraints on which countries can eventually pay for their important Russian hydrocarbons in Bitcoin, so this would probably not be used by any country.

2. The Bitcoin market is not yet mature for such transactions. Above all, America could then sanction countries that exchange their U.S. dollars for Bitcoin and then send it to Russia.

3. Many countries are wary of Bitcoin. To agree to use Bitcoin would be to legitimize it in the eyes of their people. Something that countries like India absolutely do not want.

However, there are plenty of other reasons to be Bullish on Bitcoin. I've explained this to you recently, and I still maintain that Bitcoin will reach $100K by the end of 2022. This is just an opinion, but I think you'll find it interesting to understand what makes me believe in $100K for Bitcoin by 2022:

In Bitcoin We Trust Newsletter

Here’s Why I Still Think Bitcoin Will Hit $100K (at Least) in 2022.

Two days ago, when the price of Bitcoin was still around $39K, I explained that a double bottom pattern seemed to be forming for the price of Bitcoin. Since then, things have accelerated, and the price of Bitcoin has broken through two major resistances, including the $41.5K level…

Read more

4 years ago · 2 likes · 1 comment · Sylvain Saurel

Let's be Bullish, but let's be Bullish for the right reasons so that newcomers avoid disillusionment later.

Subscribe now

Twitter

• @ssaurel

In Bitcoin We Trust

• Medium

• Newsletter

• Publish0x

• Reddit

• Quora for all the questions you have on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

Comment & Earn!

Share your thoughts and opinions on the topics covered within this blog in the comments below for your chance to win yourself an NFT. Click here for more information on our engagement rewards.

Discord | Twitter | Youtube

Now and then I see articles in the media telling us that a bank or economist has published a report estimating the fair value of Bitcoin. In February 2022, JPMorgan published such a report on the fair value of Bitcoin:

I am sure you have read this type of article in the past. You will read more in the future as well because banks or funds love to publish them. In my opinion, this type of article is of little interest because there is no such thing as the fair value of Bitcoin.

It is meaningless. There is simply the price you are willing to pay for what Bitcoin offers you. Period.

Some people will be willing to pay $39K, which is its current price on the spot market, while others will not. But in the end, this does not mean that the fair value of Bitcoin is $39K or $20K or $50K. To me, Bitcoin is undervalued in terms of the 3 fundamental freedoms it gives you:

• Freedom to send BTC.

• Freedom to receive BTC.

• Freedom to HODL BTC.

Combined, these three freedoms allow you to live your life on your own terms. So I'm willing to buy Bitcoin when its price is $39K. I was also willing to buy it at $50K. What matters to me is not the price I pay for my Bitcoin, but rather accumulating as much of it as possible to protect the fruits of my labor from the ravages of inflation in a censorship-resistant manner.

Because that's all I care about with Bitcoin. That the guarantees Bitcoin gives me don't change. And that's what makes the Bitcoin network so valuable, with its protocol that has remained unchanged since its creation. If this mutual trust were to be broken, my relationship with Bitcoin would necessarily change. But I'm sure that won't happen because no one has an interest in it.

No one has an interest in changing Bitcoin's monetary policy or its maximum bid of 21 million BTC. It would undermine everything that over 130 million people have already adopted Bitcoin for. This revolution would not allow it.

However, this is just my opinion. The fair value of Bitcoin depends on the individual. Each user may or may not find sufficient reason to buy Bitcoin. Rather than letting banks or funds decide for you whether or not it is time to buy Bitcoin with this concept of fair value, you should ask yourself the right question:

Do I need to protect the fruits of my labor in the world's most secure decentralized network?

If the answer is yes, then you know you should buy Bitcoin. If the answer is no, then you probably believe in one of the 10 statements I detail here:

In Bitcoin We Trust Newsletter

Trust, Don’t Verify – Do Not Buy Bitcoin if You Agree With Any of These 10 Statements

This issue of In Bitcoin We Trust Newsletter is for all subscribers. To get more insights on Bitcoin, you may be interested to upgrade to the premium package…

Read more

4 years ago · 3 likes · Sylvain Saurel

So you're not afraid of inflation, the corruption of our leaders, the flaws in the system, or maybe you think that recurring wars are normal. If that's your worldview, you'll probably prefer to stick to the reports of bankers and other financiers when it comes to your position on Bitcoin.

That's right, as always, because it is your money at the end of the day, but you'll miss the point: the liberating power of the Bitcoin revolution. It's up to you!

Subscribe now

Twitter

• @ssaurel

In Bitcoin We Trust

• Medium

• Newsletter

• Publish0x

• Reddit

• Quora for all the questions you have on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

Comment & Earn!

Share your thoughts and opinions on the topics covered within this blog in the comments below for your chance to win yourself an NFT. Click here for more information on our engagement rewards.

Discord | Twitter | Youtube