12 Comments

Just read the subtitle did PlanB block you for disagreeing with him?

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I suppose so. Unfortunately, this is something that often happens on Twitter with recognized figures who can't stand contradiction.

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Blocked for a time. Then unblocked me. Seems we're sympatico now. Never disagreed with him - never even had an engagement with him - don't know why he blocked me, don't know why he unblocked me.

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Will be interesting to see if S2F rings true over the next couple of years, personally I think it will, let’s see!

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Models need constant adjustment and they have trouble predicting new behaviors. The most famous examples of bad models that I can recall are FiveTheirtyEights political models that made Nate Silver famous. Those were once spot on but were terrible the past few elections. So I think what you state is true; "Perhaps the models serve to prove only one point: bitcoin's price tends to go up over time."

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Or as my friend says "all models are wrong but some are ueful"

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The numbers going red are something normal in this game.

Let’s just chill and wait until this comes back to normal.

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I think bitcoins run late this year will even surprise the crypto OG's

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The Blue Wizard in Jan said that Bitcoin will drop to the $30,000s before taking off to $100,000, we'll see if he was right.

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Long term trend is up, always up. Some people don't understand this

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That's alright, investing has always been a transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient. Stocks, crypto, no difference.

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Albeit said it well. You have to have constant adjustments to modeling. For everything. Literally anything and everything has a modeling system for predictions of some kind in the background informing those in charge and there are always little teeny tiny tweaks and changes being done. I write reports and do data models for the hospital I work for to track different aspects of addiction and things have to change to remain accurate in that space so I know it needs to happen elsewhere. However, the one thing that never changes is that the models are NOT EVER ACCURATE. We can't predict the future, and will never be able to. Trends are just that, trends. Look at fashion. It's defined by trends until something changes it and all the sudden the entire landscape changes. No one can predict anything as accurately as they think they can so yea. Bitcoin goes up. That's the truth!

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