AotC - Moon or North Pole?
Welcome back & Merry Christmas!
Hopefully everyone is safe & comfortable, and enjoying the holiday season in the ways most special to you :)
The market hasn’t been tremendously cooperative, unfortunately. Part low-liquidity, I’m sure, but we’ve lost some key levels now, so I will not be buying on anything but strength. If you’re feeling like your funds are at risk, that you’re making silly mistakes trying to make back losses (revenge trading), or that you’re bouncing between long and short so frequently you’re hemorrhaging funds, I’d recommend getting your accounts into a place where you’re comfortable just logging out and celebrating the holiday in peace. You won’t likely miss anything!
Let’s get into why:
Total Market Cap - 6H - click to view:
I was bullish at the double-bottom (2nd green arrow), but since, we’ve really weakened the area at the bottom of the green zone with multiple break-attempts & chop. Now we’re in a Wedge or Triangle of sorts, but in my eyes, this could just as easily break short at this point. On top of this fact, if it does run up a little, we’re up against EMAs, the recent high, the DSTL (downward-sloping trendline), and the underside of the next green SR-zone.
BTCUSD - 1M - click to view:
The monthly chart for BTCUSD doesn’t look good either. Sorry to be the bearer of bad tidings instead of glad tidings. We only have 10 days before the monthly candle closes, and if it closes with a minimal lower wick, that’ll be considered a Morning Star candle (bearish), and basically with a Double-Top as well. Here’s the 6H:
BTCUSD - 6H - click to view:
On the Intraday for BTC, everyone is watching this Falling Wedge. Falling Wedges typically break long, true, but we just impulsively broke a longer-term USTL (upward sloping trendline) to the downside, and too much time has passed for this to be a false breakout at this point. I believe this’ll just keep trickling down & that we’ll probably be re-testing $41k before we know it. Even if we move up & re-test the $52.5k area, that could still be considered a bear-flag if done correctively. An impulse up out of this Wedge with a following mini-consolidation under or above that $52.5k level would be the ticket we need to start moving up again.
ETHUSD - 6H - click to view:
ETHUSD looks considerably better than BTC to me. We’re maintaining the structure of this large Bull Flag, and even though we’ve broken down below this red S/R zone and are rejecting it as new resistance, the fact that we’ve maintained this same structure without a single impulse in either direction is a positive thing. If we had impulsed below this red S/R region, then re-tested the underside of it to get to where we are now, that would be much worse. So, ETHUSD still has promise here! Which typically bodes well for Alts!
Reader Request - KDAUSD - 4H - click to view:
KDA needs to show some strength before I’d consider it, but I like the little impulse up it’s had lately on the Intraday. I’d like to see a clean break & re-test of the green 200EMA before buying. Previous high (yellow ray-line) will act as support.
Reader Request - FTMUSD - 4H - click to view:
FTM, one of my favorites, has unfortunately broken down through the neckline of a large H&S pattern. A re-test of the neckline is overdue, so we’ll probably see a rally to $1.80 at some point soon, as well as the 200EMA. If we climb to said re-test correctively, that could mean more downside. If we impulse up to the neckline and form a little mini bull-flag underneath it, it could mean we break long from $1.80, at which point I would be buying FTM on a re-test of $1.80 as new support (strength).
Reader Request - DOTUSD - 6H - click to view:
DOT broke down through this red rectangle of S/R, but correctively. That’s positive. If we can get an impulse next up into or above said S/R zone, a buy on strength would be the play here. Or a buy right now at this corrective double-bottom we seem to be forming, but that’s a much riskier play.
Reader Request - EOSUSD - 1D - click to view:
On EOS, we’ve broken back down into this range that we resided in from July 2020 till Apr 2021. I’m not sure where we’ll go from here as this range has strong boundaries (check my screenshot above to see all the circled rejections on both sides). $3.90 and $2.20 are the price-points to watch. Otherwise, you can play the range and buy the bottom / sell the top until we break out again.
Summary:
So, Total MC & BTC not looking too hot while ETH and some alts could see a rally soon. ETH could lead the charge if this flag breaks long, alts to follow or run in parallel, then BTC would be the last to pump before cycle-end. Not sure if this is how it’ll play out, but that’s what it’s looking like right now. I don’t expect much movement except sideways over the holiday due to low liquidity.
Thanks for your readership, and have a lovely Christmas! Sorry for a shorter episode - writing this from my laptop on the go, and also working on my year-end Special for you all simultaneously!
Cheers,
CC
Disclaimer:
Cryton Capital is not a registered investment advisor, legal advisor, tax advisor, or broker/dealer. All investment / financial opinions expressed in any-and-all posts on this page, including screenshots & captions, are from the personal research and experience of the owner, and are intended to be interpreted as educational material only. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all financial charts and commentary are as up-to-date as possible, there may be times where price moves beyond key levels before the chart can be posted. Alas, this is part of the fast-paced financial sector and cannot be avoided. Also, occasionally unintended errors and/or misprints may occur.
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Great analysis. It's great that you care about requests first of all. The market is at an interesting point. I hope it will be the best for everyone.
Thanks for the analysis!