Black Weds Aftermath + Trade setup
Let me start by saying, I’m so sorry for any pain you all have been through in these last 48 hours. It’s been brutal. Intensely brutal. I’ve lost a lot, and I’m sure many of you have as well… I never anticipated a 64% pullback in LTCUSD. Not in 1,000 years did I anticipate that. I was prepared for a 40%, or maybe a 45%. Full disclosure, my entire LTC position that I’ve been building up for months was fully liquidated.
I’m not one to brag, nor am I one put a darker spin on a story than what really happened to get people to feel sorry… I try to keep it at a baseline, and to just be… real. I feel like that’s what the world needs more of that these days. In addition, I refuse to ever be thought of as someone that has “made it”, without having actually made it. I haven’t “made it”. The pain these last 48 hours has caused people, in the middle of COVID, where most are desperate to make more with less and are already more likely to risk “whatever necessary” to just for once get ahead… They are getting hit once more with a level of financial burden and stress that those that have “made it” are mostly isolated from. I’m in the trenches with you. I’ve felt the pain, and I’ve learned from it. All I can say is, the pain from these last few days will make you a better trader, and will force you to protect yourself more. As capital preservation is the #1 rule of a trader - a rule I thought I was abiding by, but truly violated, I’m here to say: lets grow together. We can do it again, and we will do it again.
I sometimes wonder if the scars I’ve been through in the last decade of trading will ever fully heal. I rode the bull mkt of 2013 up, and down the other side, too paralyzed to take any action. I didn’t know enough to know what to do. Then I rode the bull mkt of 2017 up, and down the other side, too paralyzed to take any action. I knew too much for my own good, and got “paralysis by analysis”. Since, vowing to never get stuck “not taking action” ever again, I’ve taken too much action, trying to expediate things that can’t be expediated. Both life and trading are a balance. You must find that balance in your own terms, and in your own ways. My lessons won’t necessarily be applicable to you, but, as time goes on, I’ve (weirdly enough) become more of a believer in “everything happens for a reason”. You know what you need to do, now. So do it.
And lets make that money back!
Trade Idea:
Most charts are now destroyed. There is no level of TA that can be done on the vast majority until we get additional structure at these levels, which takes time. I need a little time off, anyway, and I think many of us do as a whole. I think this is a good time to take a break, step away, and recoup, in order to make better decisions when it counts the most in the weeks and months to come.
If you have capital on the side, you’ve probably already bought the dip. If not, here is a good trade that I have identified where you can park some capital… It’s one of my only charts that still makes sense, and the lower boundary of this flag wasn’t breached by the dip. It’s now re-testing a critical level, and is still fully within the Bull Flag formation:
(Click to enlarge)
Next target for WAXUSD: $0.45.
Be well, stay safe, and talk to you in a week or two!
Disclaimer:
Cryton Capital is not a registered investment advisor, legal advisor, tax advisor, or broker/dealer. All investment / financial opinions expressed in any-and-all posts on this page, including screenshots & captions, are from the personal research and experience of the owner, and are intended to be interpreted as educational material only. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all financial charts and commentary are as up-to-date as possible, there may be times where price moves beyond key levels before the chart can be posted. Alas, this is part of the fast-paced financial sector and cannot be avoided. Also, occasionally unintended errors and/or misprints may occur.
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It sucks that some of the best lessons in life are learned the hard way. I'm sorry for everyone's losses but, can't dwell on things too long or you'll miss out on new opportunities. Great episode that I hope everyone gets a chance to read. Not many TA clowns on twitter provide this kind of honesty.
Chris, my friend, colleague, investment guide:
Your honesty and candor are why I trust you and continue to read and look for these updates everyday.
So what am I doing? Taking a break just like you, kind of, not really, but you know, sort of.
Be good friend.