Buy Bitcoin, but Buy Bitcoin for the Right Reasons.
And certainly not for random predictions about the future price of Bitcoin.
During the Bitcoin Miami 2022 Conference, Cathie Wood, the CEO of Ark Invest, was asked about her vision for the future of Bitcoin. During her speech, Cathie Wood explained that she sees Bitcoin reaching a price of $1 million by 2030. Cathie Wood has been a long-time believer in Bitcoin and certainly given Ark Invest's positions, she wasn't going to be Bearish on the future of Bitcoin.
Following this speech, some people contacted me to ask what I thought of her prediction of a $1 million Bitcoin price by 2030.
So I'm going to try to ask you what I think. The first thing is that I'm not going to give you a straight answer like “Yes, Cathie Wood is right” or “No, Cathie Wood is wrong”. Like you, but also like her, I cannot know what the price of Bitcoin will be in 2030. So I cannot assure you that Cathie Wood is right or wrong.
Only time will tell.
You need to focus on what Bitcoin brings to the world
However, I can tell you something much more important. The price of Bitcoin moves at its own pace because Bitcoin is a free market. So there can be, and often is, a difference between the fundamentals of Bitcoin that we Bitcoiners can perceive, and the valuation of Bitcoin on the spot market that corresponds to the feeling of all the participants in this market.
This is the fair value of Bitcoin, because the market has decided so, but there is always a lag time before the fundamentals of Bitcoin are taken into account by the market and this reflects on its price.
So the important thing is to focus on the fundamentals of Bitcoin. What does Bitcoin bring to the world? Is the supply of Bitcoin becoming scarcer? Are we seeing more and more HODlers over a year old on the market?
And so on. These are currently things that you see when you look at the on-chain data. It's not yet bearing fruit as some would hope, but that will come with time. Patience is the key with Bitcoin. You know this because I tell you this constantly.
Second, Bitcoin offers everyone a P2P payment system whose transactions cannot be censored. A system that belongs to all its users. In a world that is more uncertain than ever, the Bitcoin protocol gives you incredible guarantees. With Bitcoin, you can take real control over the fruits of your labor.
Bitcoin protects you from censorship, confiscation, and the infinite monetary inflation that is the original sin of the current monetary and financial system. So more and more people will open their eyes to the flaws of the current system, but also to the fact that Bitcoin is the cure.
The price of Bitcoin will rise sharply in the future, but there's no need to set goals with specific dates
What interests me personally is that Bitcoin addresses the problem that millions of people will have in the coming years. So the adoption of Bitcoin will be massive in my opinion. And since the supply of Bitcoin is hard-capped at 21 million units no matter what, you know what that means: the price of Bitcoin is bound to rise sharply in the future.
This will be the result of the application of the principles governing the law of supply and demand.
I don't know how fast this will happen. If Bitcoin continues to keep pace with the adoption of the Internet, then we will have around a billion users by 2030. With that number of users, it is not unrealistic to think that Bitcoin's market cap will have surpassed that of gold which is currently $12.5T. This would give us a Bitcoin price of around $430K.
This is entirely possible, but then things could go even faster. Or things could go at a slower pace. And that's where setting goals like Cathie Wood does is dangerous. Many will buy Bitcoin based on these types of predictions that are just opinions.
There is a great risk that these people will not understand the why of Bitcoin and will then start selling their BTC en masse if the announced goals are not met. This is what happened at the end of 2021 with the S2F Model. Too many people were taking this model for granted. But it was not an exact science. We then saw many people selling their BTC at a loss. A huge collective disappointment that has helped the price of Bitcoin fall by 50% since its ATH in November 2021.
However, the fundamentals of Bitcoin had not changed. Only the vision of buyers who didn't understand the why of Bitcoin had changed.
Final Thoughts
If you are going to buy Bitcoin (and that’s a great idea), you must do it for the right reasons. You have to do it because you fundamentally believe in Bitcoin, not because some people give you guarantees about the price of Bitcoin at a certain time.
That never works, because the price of Bitcoin is never guaranteed. Only its protocol gives you certainty. Once you understand this, you will have taken a big step in the Bitcoin revolution, and you can become a long-term HODLer who keeps accumulating patiently. Because that's what Bitcoin is all about in the years to come.
And when we get to 2030, we'll see where we stand. Stay strong, Stay Bitcoin HODLers!
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Are there other crypto currencies that have similar value proposition to Bitcoin where people could decide their money is better invested? It would seem the platform is designed to get slower and slower over time.
It's not so much the price of bitcoin today in dollars, is more what your investment in bitcoin will be worth over time.