Can You Spot the Bitcoin Bull Market Top?


Do you remember April 14, 2021?

On that day, bitcoin’s price hit its all-time high: $65,000.

Today, it’s a lot lower.

Many say the market cycle ended. It peaked on April 14 and we’re now in a bear market.

They know better

Obviously, the experts on YouTube and Twitter know the market better than you do.

That’s why, after the market peaked, they told you prices will always go up, nobody will ever sell, the bull market will destroy all data models, and the supercycle will send “these five altcoins” up 100x “in May.”

As experienced chart analysts, they clearly identified the peak.

Now, so can you.

Find the Top

Below, I put together a list of previous market cycle peaks.

As these peaks follow predictable patterns—any YouTuber will tell you that—let's examine the visual record to confirm April 14 was the market cycle peak.

I scale each chart as a three-day trading chart with RSI at the bottom and the Y axis plotted as percentage change, not price.

First, today’s chart, for reference.

Now find the previous peaks:

Peak A

Peak B

Peak C

Peak D

Peak E

Peak F

Mark, you showed six charts but there have only been three market cycle peaks

Actually, there have been four market cycle peaks with the data I use, but that's a story for another day.

Yes, six charts. Four of those charts were not market cycle peaks. Only two were.  

  • Peak A—2017 market cycle peak

  • Peak B—2017 summer

  • Peak C—late 2016

  • Peak D—2019

  • Peak E—2012

  • Peak F—first of two market cycle peaks in 2013 (many consider this a “false peak”)

What does that mean?

It means bitcoin's price goes and up and down with extreme power, sometimes very quickly, and takes a while to recover—even during bull markets.

You can't expect bitcoin’s price to go up forever. When you spend six months in a parabola, you can expect it will fall as hard as it rose, possibly just as quickly.

Does that mean we're starting a bear market?

It's possible. I guess that depends on what you consider a "bear market." I'll discuss that in my next post. 

If you want to know what data I use to identify market cycle peaks, read my medium post, “Did Bitcoin’s Bull Market Peak? Three Ways to Know.”

Read the Medium Post

Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio.

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