Do you remember April 14, 2021?
On that day, bitcoinโs price hit its all-time high: $65,000.
Today, itโs a lot lower.
Many say the market cycle ended. It peaked on April 14 and weโre now in a bear market.
They know better
Obviously, the experts on YouTube and Twitter know the market better than you do.
Thatโs why, after the market peaked, they told you prices will always go up, nobody will ever sell, the bull market will destroy all data models, and the supercycle will send โthese five altcoinsโ up 100x โin May.โ
As experienced chart analysts, they clearly identified the peak.
Now, so can you.
Find the Top
Below, I put together a list of previous market cycle peaks.
As these peaks follow predictable patternsโany YouTuber will tell you thatโlet's examine the visual record to confirm April 14 was the market cycle peak.
I scale each chart as a three-day trading chart with RSI at the bottom and the Y axis plotted as percentage change, not price.
First, todayโs chart, for reference.
Now find the previous peaks:
Peak A
Peak B
Peak C
Peak D
Peak E
Peak F
Mark, you showed six charts but there have only been three market cycle peaks
Actually, there have been four market cycle peaks with the data I use, but that's a story for anotherย day.
Yes, six charts. Four of those charts were not market cycle peaks. Only two were.ย ย
Peak Aโ2017 market cycle peak
Peak Bโ2017 summer
Peak Cโlate 2016
Peak Dโ2019
Peak Eโ2012
Peak Fโfirst of two market cycle peaks in 2013 (many consider this a โfalse peakโ)
What does that mean?
It means bitcoin's price goes and up and down with extreme power, sometimes very quickly, and takes a while to recoverโeven during bull markets.
You can't expect bitcoinโs price to go up forever. When you spend six months in a parabola, you can expect it will fall as hard as it rose, possibly just as quickly.
Does that mean we're starting a bear market?
It's possible. I guess that depends on what you consider a "bear market." I'll discuss that in my next post.ย
If you want to know what data I use to identify market cycle peaks, read my medium post, โDid Bitcoinโs Bull Market Peak? Three Ways to Know.โ
Mark Helfman publishes theย Crypto is Easyย newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer onย Mediumย andย Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in hisย bio.
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BTC 35k to 40k bear market? Good news!
If all other crypto didnโt follow BTC, I wouldnโt mind a bear market for BTC. I would love to see some other coins go or stay green when BTC red but that rarely happens. And it never lasts.