AotC - Build on
Welcome back!
I hope this finds you all well; if not financially, at least in health, spirit, and determination. As they say on CT (CryptoTwitter), “Bear markets are for building”. This doesn’t just mean coding, making apps, spinning up MainNets, and the like… It can mean building knowledge, skill, and character. Here we are in yet another bear market, outlined 20 days ago in my episode "Pain Abounds". But there is still work to be done.
Lets jump in:
TOTAL MC - 8H chart - click to view
Price-wise, we’re printing exactly what we did in 2017: 4 corrective swings on the way up to a peak, a hard-drop (late May), a Bear Flag forming over the next weeks, then a breakdown & full Bear Market. The last Bear Market lasted 798 days from peak to it’s lowest point. I will say this: I don’t believe crypto will remain dormant so long this time around. I believe the cycles will compress as usability, publicity, regulation, speed, transparency, and adoption rise. But I think we’re already in a Bear cycle now, and will continue to be for some time. How long? Who knows. At least months. We will cross that bridge when we get there. One piece of wisdom I heard recently is applicable here: each market cycle is dictated by the amount of FUD the market can absorb. Right now, the market is absorbing absolutely none without it affecting price. There is your answer.
BTCUSD - 8H chart - click to view
The overall uptrend is still intact for Bitcoin on the highest of timeframes. We have some strong boundaries in place containing price whenever reached. But within the overall higher-timeframe uptrend, we can still be in a Bear Market on a smaller time horizon, and we are. I whole-heartedly believe we will re-test $20,000 BTC, and likely, it will even dip below to shake out the strongest of hands. Maybe $19,300 or so.
We’ve dipped below the S/R zone formed from a previous local high that formed on the way up, we’ve re-tested it as a new Resistance zone (red rectangle), and formed a Head & Shoulders pattern - right shoulder being the Bear Flag we’re in. When this breaks short, we will see a re-test of 2017’s high as base support, and that number is $20k.
Click to view my screenshot for smaller details & breakdown.
RUNEUSD - 8H - click to view
RUNE, like many other crypto pairs, has just broken down below a key S/R zone and price is re-testing the underside of it as new resistance. We’ve fallen correctively (bullish), but this S/R zone is more powerful, I believe, and will keep price suppressed. If the S/R zone doesn’t keep it contained, the overall market will keep it suppressed, as RUNE specifically needs increasing TVL to appreciate in value. We’re seeing people pull from LPs and increased selling, so this is a good time to start DCAing into this gem a little at a time. "I’m going to buy with 5% of my available capital once every 5 days for 1 month” or some such thing. If it drops more, you win. If it runs up, you win. That’s the benefit of dollar-cost averaging.
ENJUSD - 6H - click to view
ENJ broke out where I said it would, but correctively, then dipped back under the Trendline and continued dropping. I took a small loss and exited that position, and now I feel we’re likely going to see a double-bottom form, or support form on one of these DSTLs (downward-sloping trendlines). I don’t know which. We’ll be watching it. ENJ is a long-term winner and has huge potential, so I’ll be DCAing on this one as well, once we get a little lower.
UOSUSD - 6H - click to view
UOS is still miraculously in a massive Bull Flag, but it’s so large that it can still drop a good bit from here and remain within it. We’re climbing in this corrective channel right now, and I don’t think we’ll see a re-test of previous highs before a drop… I think it’s more likely we re-test the bottom once more, which would be the 3rd touch (as I’ve said before, 3rd touch is always the most powerful as it’s the first confirmed re-test of a line) then a climb from there… But anything could happen as this coin is just about to launch it’s MainNet. We may yet see surprising strength.
IOTXUSD - 6H - click to view
I bought some IOTX when it looked like it was going into a squeeze under the 50EMA, but I recently closed that position for a small loss. We’re now below a very key S/R zone. This pair is a bit choppy, so we could stay under this zone for some time before it breaks back up. IOTX tends to lag the market a bit. But still big things coming for this coin, and it played my previously outlined targets perfectly this cycle. I think we’ll see even larger movements on this coin next cycle, as it didn’t get a chance to fully shine before the bears sunk their claws into it.
GRTUSD - 6H - click to view
GRT was excellent this cycle. Really nice & smooth PA (price action) and very predictable overall. I like what their aiming to do, I like their partnerships, and I like the tokenomics. Unfortunately, I don’t see that price will be able to keep itself from re-testing the lower boundary of this flag, as it’s nearing it’s 3rd touch. Bears will force it down to test a 3rd time. That puts us near ATL, which would be a great area to pick up a bag if you haven’t already. Another one that’s low enough now to start DCAing into with a longer-term time horizon.
ANKRUSD - 6H - click to view
Here we have ANKR having just completed it’s 3rd touch, and overall still within a Bull Flag. It’s run up impulsively, and is now re-testing the 50. I’d say this is a good time to pop in a long and see if we can ride it up to the 200 for a quick trade. A smaller position of course, as the overall trend is still indicating bearishness, but I think we could see this run a bit higher before beginning to form a new internal structure, then we’ll re-analyze when we get to that point. It’s definitely showing strength here.
Reader Request - BCHUSD - 6H - click to view
BCH isn’t looking so good here. As with many of my other pairs above, we’ve moved below a key S/R zone and are now re-testing the underside of it as new resistance. I wouldn’t be buying until we cleanly break above this, then and re-test it as support, as we can’t be sure how low it could go. You want to shoot your shot on pairs that show strength, like ANKR is with it’s little Impulse up to the 50 while so many others are falling.
Reader Request - WAXPUSD - 6H - click to view
Overall Bull Flag, but currently falling like the rest. We impulsed short very sharply in the last few days, and we’ll have to wait for some new structure to form here before we can take a guess as to what it might do next. I don’t care for the look of this right now, so will be sitting on the sidelines, as I am with the vast majority.
Reader Request - EOSUSD - 6H - click to view
EOS is, as I write, re-testing the underside of a VERY strong S/R level at $3.88. It’s been rejected as both Support & Resistance manyyy times in the past. I would need to see a very clean break long above this price, paired with a Bull Flag, before I’d be willing to buy this. This has dropped more aggressively than many of the other pairs over the last few weeks, which should show us that caution must be used in increased quantities when trading this pair in an overall down market.
Sorry for more depressing news market-wide, but in my “Pain Abounds” episode, I outlined a very clear case for the start of a Bear cycle. Everything has followed what I outlined, and I think we’re in for more pain ahead. I don’t trust the on-chain metrics at this point, as markets are driven by emotion, and many people are very emotional at this juncture. Remember: the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Protect that capital, and I’ll catch you next time. Hopefully with better news!
Disclaimer:
Cryton Capital is not a registered investment advisor, legal advisor, tax advisor, or broker/dealer. All investment / financial opinions expressed in any-and-all posts on this page, including screenshots & captions, are from the personal research and experience of the owner, and are intended to be interpreted as educational material only. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all financial charts and commentary are as up-to-date as possible, there may be times where price moves beyond key levels before the chart can be posted. Alas, this is part of the fast-paced financial sector and cannot be avoided. Also, occasionally unintended errors and/or misprints may occur.
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a really logical and realistic article, there was a lot I didn't know about the stock market. It was a very useful and valuable article for me. I had an idea about many subjects. I will continue my research and I totally agree with the detail that the markets are governed by people's emotions, I think that's the only realistic reason why they are unpredictable.
thanks for the article.
Thank you for the amazing analysis.
I've just started graphic analysis.
I'm looking at the analysis and trying to figure out how it happened.
I've even been successful a few times.
But I still think I'm a beginner.
İf I remember correctly, this is the first time I've seen your analysis.
I personally found it very beautiful.
Can I ask you for your next analysis?
Again, thank you. Have a nice day.