Some technical analysis. I like the math part. Mathematics tells the truth, but the ratio gives 50% or 33%...
We'll never find 100% of them. there is even a 0.1% chance. That's why we need to take the right amount of care. It's neither too important nor too insignificant to be ignored. The golden ratio should be found. You have to look and get an idea.
Feb 11, 2022·edited Feb 11, 2022Liked by Cosmonaut
I remember 15 years ago when I stepped into the Forex world to build the first CLOB ECN in the space. Of course FXAll was already the primary electronic platform for the large corporate treasury traders and not “ordinary” punters. The ECN was however targeted at a wider range of brokerage traders and their clients. But, as a result, that also was where I first became aware of the largish world of Fx retail trading shops… a lot of them and a lot of pretty sketchy ones. And, as a result, that’s the first time I paid attention to the so-called “technical” traders. It struck me as bizarre that they used semi-statistical “methods” to (important word:) JUSTIFY their trading approach. The whole nomenclature were very “cute”: head-and-shoulders, doubletop doublebottom, cup-and-handle, wedges, death-cross, etc.
At first and very briefly I took it seriously and then saw how and then why so many of them were just raped and suckered: because they needed something to hang their good or bad luck on. A form of psychobabble that gave them a feeling of understanding in the absence of anything empirical to base their choices on. National currencies are easily the most disintermediated of assets you can trade: you either master a vast amount of economic data and have access to political decisions and their impact or… you make up a pseudoscience.
So, take away even the theoretical ability to guess why something might be happening and replace it with a semi-codified and unprovable set of phenomena. Just a step away from the gambler who says it’s all in the wrist or some of the other vast number of random superstitions.
Yup, crypto has nothing else to use, so… chart or ouija boards away…
I think watching the trend lines too close could drive you crazy, just HODL and look for good opportunities to buy more when cash flow allows. Which if any NFT/Game related coins are on your radar?
Your chart reminds me that whenever I need some general hopium for crypto, I change the scale from linear to log and breath a sigh of relief as I see BTC sailing upwards lol. On a more serious note, the whole death cross thing seems to be more of a lagging indicator than anything else in my opinion. As you say, it could go up from here, it could go down. I'll be watching the charts and markets for those signs which will hopefully tell us which direction that will be!
They give fud at the specific charts time. İts a pishing system i think. When u see death cross and think like this "No i need sell now" İt is bad. We need to learn control emotions. Technology is everything.
Some technical analysis. I like the math part. Mathematics tells the truth, but the ratio gives 50% or 33%...
We'll never find 100% of them. there is even a 0.1% chance. That's why we need to take the right amount of care. It's neither too important nor too insignificant to be ignored. The golden ratio should be found. You have to look and get an idea.
Thanks for the nice article.
This doesn't scare me at all since we've been chased by bears last 4 months. My guess is that it will go up or stay in this area for a while
I remember 15 years ago when I stepped into the Forex world to build the first CLOB ECN in the space. Of course FXAll was already the primary electronic platform for the large corporate treasury traders and not “ordinary” punters. The ECN was however targeted at a wider range of brokerage traders and their clients. But, as a result, that also was where I first became aware of the largish world of Fx retail trading shops… a lot of them and a lot of pretty sketchy ones. And, as a result, that’s the first time I paid attention to the so-called “technical” traders. It struck me as bizarre that they used semi-statistical “methods” to (important word:) JUSTIFY their trading approach. The whole nomenclature were very “cute”: head-and-shoulders, doubletop doublebottom, cup-and-handle, wedges, death-cross, etc.
At first and very briefly I took it seriously and then saw how and then why so many of them were just raped and suckered: because they needed something to hang their good or bad luck on. A form of psychobabble that gave them a feeling of understanding in the absence of anything empirical to base their choices on. National currencies are easily the most disintermediated of assets you can trade: you either master a vast amount of economic data and have access to political decisions and their impact or… you make up a pseudoscience.
So, take away even the theoretical ability to guess why something might be happening and replace it with a semi-codified and unprovable set of phenomena. Just a step away from the gambler who says it’s all in the wrist or some of the other vast number of random superstitions.
Yup, crypto has nothing else to use, so… chart or ouija boards away…
A 50/50 bet...... I'll take those odds
I think watching the trend lines too close could drive you crazy, just HODL and look for good opportunities to buy more when cash flow allows. Which if any NFT/Game related coins are on your radar?
Your chart reminds me that whenever I need some general hopium for crypto, I change the scale from linear to log and breath a sigh of relief as I see BTC sailing upwards lol. On a more serious note, the whole death cross thing seems to be more of a lagging indicator than anything else in my opinion. As you say, it could go up from here, it could go down. I'll be watching the charts and markets for those signs which will hopefully tell us which direction that will be!
They give fud at the specific charts time. İts a pishing system i think. When u see death cross and think like this "No i need sell now" İt is bad. We need to learn control emotions. Technology is everything.
Thanks for your great analysis.
Nobody knows really. At this stage it's basically just educated guessing.