With crypto, wait for greed and you’ll get it
Bear today, bull tomorrow
What happened to bitcoin?
We didn’t get supercycle in 2021. Bitcoin’s price didn’t even reach $100,000! And many altcoins only gave you gains of 500% or less. Some are even lower now than last year.
What happened to laser eyes? Where is my 100x altcoin?
Now, bitcoin’s price has gone up 33% since the end of January, just had a 15% pump, and people think it’s about to fall off a cliff.
I want my money back.
All things come, in time
No worries if you bought in October or November. You’ll be fine, possibly sooner than you might think. Try to push through the terror of the moment. Eventually, you will find the ecstasy you seek.
In November and December, we shed some institutions and summer tourists. In December and January, we shed some whales and leveraged traders. Last month, we shed defensive profit-takers and got rid of some panic-sellers while institutions trickled back in, some peak sellers re-entered, small wallets got bigger, and diamond hands gobbled up whatever bitcoins remained. I covered this for paid subscribers of my Crypto is Easy newsletter.
After almost two months of fear, bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index has started poking its head into “greed” territory.
Delayed FOMOfication
While it may take a while to get back to a new all-time high, the market cut a lot of dead weight over the past few months.
What do you think will happen once the market turns bullish again? Now that the smart money and true believers dominate the market?
As always, once prices go up long enough for people to think they’ll keep going up, you’ll see the money pour in. Except unlike the people buying now, these new people will not care about bitcoin. They plan to use it to make more of their government’s money.
At that point, you’ll see the greed come out. All those bearish charts and disparaging tweets will turn bullish. Laser eyes will return. You’ll hear about supercycles, flippenings, and data models again. So-called maximalists will talk less about freedom, more about wealth.
Greed will return.
The question is, what will you do when it does? Will you sell to somebody trying to flip bitcoin for some fast cash? HODL on the way up, at the risk of sitting through the multiyear bear market that comes after? Buy a little more with each new all-time high? Dollar-cost average into a rising market?
Think about this now. It may still feel like a bear market, but bitcoin’s been known to explode to the upside faster than you can say “bull trap.”
The FOMO is inevitable, it’s only a question of when. Plan now for what you’ll do when it comes.
This market may not let you wait.
Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio.
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I got FOMOed several times during my rookie period. Now I'm a reasonable investor and I know that it helps quite a lot for long term!
I think I'm starting to understand the crypto market. And it was my pick-up time until a week ago. I spent my cash buying it. And now it's time to wait. If there is a fall again, it means it's time to buy again. And then it's time to sell. It is important to read the market correctly. And also to act piecemeal. I've never seen a person act piecemeal and regret it. But I've seen a lot of people come in and regret it. Let the greedy ones all come. We have enough bitcoin to feed them. :)
Thanks.