AotC - It's Go Time...
Welcome back!
In the beginning of June I said I was exiting the majority of my crypto positions in favor of protecting myself (Ep20 - Pain Abounds published 6/5).
Toward the end of June (6/24) I published “Build On”, indicating that it didn’t look like a turnaround anytime soon, and to distract yourselves with projects and continue to remain out of the market.
At the start of July (7/9) I preached continued patience, with a very few select pairs looking like they had some short-term trades emerging (Ep22 - Missing Pieces).
In late July (7/23) I published “Ep23 - Risk Off Risk On”, indicating that the market looked to be slowly turning to Risk On again, and explaining the how & why. I of course continued preaching additional caution and patience as it hadn’t turned completely, but even more short-term trades were emerging.
Now, It’s go time
Lets get into it…
Total Market Cap - 6H - click to view
So we were in a Descending Wedge or Channel here, but pushed through the upper boundary and are now apt to either re-test the line marked “Strong S/R”, or alternatively, head straight up to the upper boundary of the overall structure. I thought we’d get a 3rd touch on the lower boundary first (indicated by the “3” and green arrow), but with the London Hard Fork being such a success and for a few other reasons, it just took off from the Double-Bottom. So we’re looking good here! We’re back in bullish territory above that SR line, and we just recently had the Golden Cross too (red (50) EMA crossing green (200) EMA).
BTCUSD - 6H - click to view
On BTCUSD we broke through the upper-boundary of a very similar wedge, as on the Total MC above, except now it looks like we’re going to form a little mini-Bull Flag along the upper boundary; this is very bullish indeed. This is the first 100% buy signal since May; some might argue that the recent Golden Cross or re-test of EMAs was a buy signal, but we would have been trading straight into resistance at the upper boundary there, so other than just a quick 1:1 trade, this is the first long-term buy signal we’ve gotten.
Unfortunately, we never got the 1-2-3 touch on the lower boundary (allowing us to buy at value on the 3rd-touch). I left that on the screenshot above from my previous episode just for reference. If we went for that 3rd touch, or a rejection of the intersection of the lower boundary and that upward-sloping trendline (the little yellow question mark in the screenshot), it would have been such a golden opportunity! Alas, we have to take it as it comes, and this potential Bull Flag is the next-best-thing.
ETHUSD - 6H - click to view
ETH has been on a rampage since the London hard-fork was such a success! It’s been great to see, but yet again, I was hoping for a little more structure to form first, to give us a clearer signal before the move. If we had seen a little Bull Flag form along the top of that red S/R Zone, it would have been beautiful (indicated by the small yellow flag I’ve drawn in), but we can’t have it all and now we’ve broken fully clear of all that consolidation at least. We have also successfully rejected the topside of the only other resistance barring us from previous highs… I’m just rolling with my Spot bag on this one, because I thought the hard-fork was going to be a little more rocky, so I got caught out (“out” being no leverage). After May, I’d rather vie on the side of caution, if anything though. I’m happy with the move up, and ETH seems to be locking in a potential long-term run long from here… If you don’t have any ETH, I’d at least grab some here to use as gas for any ETH-related projects you’re interested in, because you might never get any cheaper.
WAXPUSD - 6H - click to view
WAXP is looking really good. We remained in a massive Bull Flag type structure this entire pullback. From here, I see us continuing to solidify a Triangle as I’ve outlined in the screenshot above, and then break long from that out of the Bull Flag. Likely, it will be a nice move up to early-May highs.
RUNEUSD - 6H - click to view
RUNE is looking great here. It broke long after it’s recent exploit was handled very professionally, and is now re-testing the outlined red S/R zone as well as both EMAs, and AT the Golden Cross point. Very powerful. I’m buying at this re-test, and bought some XRUNE - their launchpad token - during the exploit as well. Buy when there’s blood in the streets!
UNOUSD - 6H - click to view
Here we have UNO - a pair I’ve outlined in AotC previously; one of the several projects I’ve brought to light here that appear to have strong teams yet still be low-cap gems. We broke long from all EMAs, as in basically everything I’m outlining today, and I was gearing up for a buy on the first re-test of the 50EMA (lower green arrow), but we never got it. Now I’ll be looking on first re-test of the 200EMA (upper green arrow).
SHIBUSD - 6H - click to view
You may hate the memes and dog coins that garner so much attention in the crypto-sphere, but one thing I know for sure is that DOGE isn’t done pumping. It’s the OG meme-coin. And another thing I know is: the next in line will always follow-suit. That’s SHIB. I’m buying SHIB here, on re-test of the 6H Phaseline that was just broken as well as the EMAs that are also at this level. A small bag, mind you, but I want exposure to this. It might not have the best fundamentals, but it’s got those pumpamentals!
ANCUSD - 6H - click to view
ANC’s mechanics may currently make it a poor choice, but the promise of a change in those mechanics over time may evolve this coin to be a monster in the future. ANC at these levels is showing sound strength, and I believe the break of the 200EMA was the last thing I needed to see before picking up a bag. I liked the little re-test of the 50, but we would have been trading straight through the 200, which is rather unwise. Here, it’s a buy, and it definitely has the power to re-clear previous highs if the tokenomics change in the near future.
AUDIOUSD - 6H - click to view
Audio is an Emanate-esque project that is looking to decentralize the music streaming industry, sharing profits to artists’ wallets in real-time with every stream of their song(s). It could turn into a monster if it gets traction, and I know MultiCoin Cap - one of my favorite crypto funds - are early investors as well. I think this is a good level for the token AUDIO, and this triangle could break in a major way once we squeeze into the end. Triangles almost always break on the flat side, not the angled side, so this matches what we’re seeing market-wide, and I could easily see a run back up to $2.40 for nearly 90% gain. And that’s just in the short-term.
IOTXUSD - 6H - click to view
IOTX, one of the coins I introduced to you all during the Christmas Special episode in 2020, saw a tremendous run up, and now it’s looking to be picking up some beautiful momentum once more. We’re seeing high-volume and a picture-perfect re-test of EMAs at resistance. Not to mention that apparently within the last 10 hours since I took this screenshot, it’s been added to Coinbase, so this screenshot is already slightly out of date (typical crypto, working to render my hard work moot before I can even post it, lol). So now might not be the best time to buy it as I’m sure it’ll retreat a bit on the back side of the Coinbase listing, but it’s one to continue to keep an eye on if you didn’t already own some. The team is always pushing out new products & collaborations, and have solid marketing as well, which is crucial.
CQTUSD - 6H - click to view
CQT is a Graph (GRT) competitor. A blockchain-indexing service. Basically aims to be the Google of blockchain data… Very solid project, good team, freshly released, and has lots of potential. It’s currently on KuCoin. Looks like we might get a nice little Bull Flag here, too, which would be a great buy opportunity.
MATICUSD - 6H - click to view
MATIC is forming an Inverse H&S pattern here. We have 2 buy-zones: a buy on the formation of a more complete right-shoulder (lower yellow circle), or a break-and-retest of the neckline as new support (higher yellow circle). Either one is good value.
SOLUSD - 6H - click to view
Solana…. What a legend. Look at the strength this coin has shown all through the last 60-90 day pullback. Incredible! Unfortunately, that means there hasn’t been much opportunity to buy “at value”, or what we perceive to be value anyway. As usual, if this goes to $150 ea, we’d have seen this area as value regardless… But here I’m looking for a buy on first re-test of the EMAs and this nice SR at $37.13. You can see that this SR has provided some solid support and resistance previously, as I’ve outlined with every little green arrow in the screenshot above. This should be a good launching-point for SOLUSD into Q4 2021.
BNBUSD - 6H - click to view
Gotta be honest, I don’t love how BNB has risen very correctively… While many of these other coins have been rising impulsively (with high volume), BNB is sort of just “trickling” up. I think this is due to the recent negative Binance news as well as the recent distrust of Binance Chain (POLY hack, etc.). I think there are better opportunities out there right now. If you really want to own an exchange token, look no further than FTX.
Reader Request - VRAUSDT - 6H - click to view
I’ve left the previous drawings on this chart from my previous analysis, so you can see what I pointed out back then in regards to the areas of consolidation we were looking at, and how price has moved since. If I were to be buying VRA, I’d be looking for a Bull Flag here, re-testing $0.0138 + EMAs. Next target is $0.0217.
Reader Request - IQUSD - 6H - click to view
Like BNB, IQ is rising, but correctively. It’s trickling upwards, instead of moving with any volume. I’d like to see a little more volume out of this before I’d be interested in buying it, but I’m liking the overall Descending Channel it’s still within. Similar to SOL, it could still be considered within a single massive Bull Flag this entire pullback, if you’re looking at higher-timeframes (HTF). A double-bottom just shy of $0.01 would be great, but we may not get it. We’ll have to monitor this one, as current sub-structure is bearish, while HTF structure is bullish. Gotta wait for the stars to align. Again, in my eyes, there are better opportunities, like on AUDIO and CQT. I was asked to review MIST and PET, too, but couldn’t find much chart data on those.
Reader Request - ONTUSD - 6H - click to view
Like IQ and BNB, ONT is also trickling higher. No real volume, but did just get a Golden Cross (50 crossing 200). I’d like to see a little Bull Flag rejecting these EMAs before a greater move up. If we miss it, we miss it, but it’s all about the most probable outcome.
We can sometimes get caught up in hoping our lower-cap alts move to surpass the bigger stuff, but if the bigger stuff is moving hard all the time, we’re just sitting in something that isn’t moving very well and missing the boat. Every 30 days you should be re-evaluating your bags, and questioning anything that isn’t moving “with the market”. If everything is up 30-40% and yours is only up 11%, why? Perhaps consider trading it out for something more mainstream, even if you get less of it with the same $$, because at least then you’ll be catching the overall market moves.
Reader Request - VETUSD - 6H - click to view
VET is looking REALLY good here. Beautiful clean break above consolidation. I’d love to see a little flag here, rejecting EMAs and forming a launching pad for the move higher. I feel like I sound like a broken record, but just goes to show how tightly correlated so much of crypto still is. This looks very nice so far though… I will be monitoring this closely myself - thanks for bringing it to my attention. I really like the swift recovery, although it did get hit hard with the Mid-Summer pullback. By the looks of it, that just provided better value to those buying in at these prices, but a little concerning as to why it dropped like a ROCK in May. Regardless, this Bull Flag might be small, so keep an eye out on the 4H chart.
Reader Request - MANAUSD - 6H - click to view
MANA, like some others, is having a little trouble breaking out of the consolidative segment / structure that formed over the last 60-90 days. We do look like we’ve broken out here though, if you zoom in on my screenshot. Price recently bounced from EMAs + a DSTL. I think this could be what we’re looking for - what will carry price up and away from this consolidation - but be cautious with this one until we get better proof. Maybe scale yourself in here slowly using DCA (dollar-cost-averaging). No need to jump all in, if you might get a better price, or worst case, you get a higher price but at least you got confirmation at that point.
Summary:
I’m averaging back into some of these positions now, as we’re seeing bounces long from EMAs and SR Zones across the board. It looks like we’ll finish the year off strong, but as we near November, be cautious of market-makers loss harvesting for taxes, and of course in early 2022 be cautious of those same parties selling to cover said tax bills as well.
Until then, we may get another 90 days of Up Only, so buckle up and get yourself in gear!
Disclaimer:
Cryton Capital is not a registered investment advisor, legal advisor, tax advisor, or broker/dealer. All investment / financial opinions expressed in any-and-all posts on this page, including screenshots & captions, are from the personal research and experience of the owner, and are intended to be interpreted as educational material only. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all financial charts and commentary are as up-to-date as possible, there may be times where price moves beyond key levels before the chart can be posted. Alas, this is part of the fast-paced financial sector and cannot be avoided. Also, occasionally unintended errors and/or misprints may occur.
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Great analysis :) really enjoyed it!
Another great analysis. AotC is one of the articles that I enjoy reading. Thank you very much for considering our crypto requests last week. Now it's time to blend your analysis with my own thoughts and make some decisions. Everything seems to be going well, I hope it stays that way. Hold on tight!
Thanks for your effort.